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We think that the returns from US corporate bonds and equities will be nowhere near as good in 2020 as they were in 2019, given the outlook for Treasury yields, credit spreads, and corporate earnings. US investment-grade corporate bonds put in their …
3rd February 2020
We think both of the US ISM surveys rebounded in January (Monday & Wednesday) Brazil’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate on Wednesday We forecast a solid 185,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls in January (Friday) Key Market Themes As the clock …
31st January 2020
China’s official PMIs might give us an idea of the impact on confidence from the virus outbreak We think that Italy’s economy stagnated in Q4 (09.00 GMT) … … but growth in France and Spain probably held up better Key Market Themes The Bank of England left …
30th January 2020
We simply don’t know how far, or fast, the novel coronavirus outbreak will ultimately spread, so for the time being we are assuming that the response across asset classes will follow the same pattern observed during and after previous epidemics – that the …
29th January 2020
We think that the Bank of England will defy expectations for a rate cut (12.00 GMT) January’s euro-zone sentiment survey will probably point to a weak Q1 (10.00 GMT) US GDP growth is likely to have ticked down in Q4 (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes A sharp …
Weaker underlying price pressures probably pushed Australia’s inflation down (00.30 GMT) We expect the Fed to leave rates on hold on Wednesday, and throughout 2020 (19.00 GMT) Chile’s central bank likely to keep its policy rate at 1.75% (21.00 GMT) Key …
28th January 2020
China’s ban on outbound travel likely to have significant impact on the rest of EM Asia Central banks in Hungary and Pakistan likely to keep rates on hold US headline durable goods probably fell in December as aircraft sales slumped (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
27th January 2020
BoE is likely to defy expectations for a rate cut; the Fed will also probably stand pat We estimate that US GDP growth slowed to 2.0% annualised in Q4 (Thursday) China’s official PMI might give us an idea of the impact on confidence from the flu outbreak …
24th January 2020
We don’t expect the recent marked outperformance of US mega-cap equities to continue during the rest of this year and suspect that it will unwind if a Democrat wins the race to the White House. The phenomenal showing by US mega-cap equities can be seen in …
23rd January 2020
ECB and Norges Bank likely to keep policy settings unchanged at their respective meetings We think that both imports and exports increased in Japan in December (Wed., 23.50 GMT) Consumer confidence in the euro-zone probably improved a bit in January …
22nd January 2020
Bank of Japan likely to leave its policy settings unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday We think that Taiwan’s GDP grew by 2.8% y/y in Q4 (08.00 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably remained at 3.8% in November (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the …
20th January 2020
We think that China’s loan prime rate edged down by 5bp in January (Monday) ECB will probably keep its deposit rate at -0.5%, but we expect a cut later this year (Thursday) Central banks in Norway, Canada, Malaysia and Nigeria are also likely to leave …
17th January 2020
We think that activity growth in China held steady in December (02.00 GMT) US housing starts are likely to have risen last month (13.30 GMT)… … But industrial production probably fell (14.15 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite renewed appetite for risk …
16th January 2020
Russia’s government resigns, paving the way for Mr Putin to remain president after 2024 The central banks of Turkey and Egypt will probably cut their policy rates We think that US retail sales grew at a slightly stronger pace in December (13.30 GMT) Key …
15th January 2020
According to our estimates, Germany’s annual GDP increased by 0.5% in 2019 (07.00 GMT) We think that UK CPI inflation remained at 1.5% in December (09.30 GMT) The US and China are scheduled to sign “phase-one” trade deal Key Market Themes Corporate …
14th January 2020
We expect the S&P 500 to outperform Treasuries by much less in 2020 than in 2019, as government bond yields edge up, the equity risk premium stops tumbling, and corporate earnings continue to disappoint. While US large-cap equities and government bonds …
13th January 2020
Export and import growth in China is likely to have improved in December Higher gasoline prices and base effects probably pushed US headline CPI inflation up Chinese delegation arrives in Washington to sign “phase-one” trade deal Key Market Themes While …
The US and China are expected to sign a “phase-one” trade deal on Wednesday We think that Germany’s economy expanded by just 0.5% last year (Wednesday) Turkey’s central bank is likely to cut rates by 100bp, despite a pick-up in inflation (Thursday) Key …
10th January 2020
Australia’s retail sales probably remained weak in November (00.30 GMT) We estimate that US non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 in December … … and think that the unemployment rate remained at a 50-year low of 3.5% (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes EM …
9th January 2020
The EC Business & Consumer Survey will probably point to sluggish growth in the euro-zone We suspect that Poland’s central bank will hold fire despite a recent rise in inflation US labour market conditions are likely to have remained robust in December …
7th January 2020
Euro-zone core CPI inflation is likely to have edged down in December (10.00 GMT) We estimate that the US trade deficit narrowed to a three-year low in November (13.30 GMT) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably increased a bit last month (15.00 GMT) …
6th January 2020
Euro-zone core inflation is likely to have declined in December (Tuesday) The US ISM non-manufacturing index probably rebounded (Tuesday) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 150,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes Both US Treasuries and …
3rd January 2020
Germany’s inflation probably rose a bit last month, but remained well below 2% (13.00 GMT) We think that the US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.0 in December (15.00 GMT) FOMC minutes are likely to signal that the Fed will remain on hold this year …
2nd January 2020
Japan’s core inflation probably remained at 0.7% in November (Thu., 23.30 GMT) We expect China’s 1-Year Loan Prime Rate to be lowered by 5bp (Fri., 01.30 GMT) Euro-zone consumer confidence index likely to have edged down this month (Fri., 15.00 GMT) Key …
19th December 2019
We expect Sweden’s Riksbank to hike rates on Thursday, but cut next year (08.30 GMT) The central banks of Mexico and Indonesia are likely to ease policy on Thursday … … while those in the UK, Japan, Norway and Taiwan will probably leave rates unchanged …
18th December 2019
Japan’s import volumes are likely to have declined in November (23.50 GMT) Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index probably edged higher in December (09.00 GMT) We think that UK CPI inflation was unchanged last month (09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes As the …
17th December 2019
“Phase-one” deal unlikely to put an end to the US-China trade war Bank of England will probably hold off cutting rates for now (Thursday) We expect the PBOC to nudge down its 1-year loan prime rate (Friday) Key Market Themes Sterling and Gilt yields …
13th December 2019
We think that returns from “risky” assets – equities, corporate bonds, REITs and industrial commodities – will generally beat those from “safe” ones – government bonds and precious metals – again over the next two years, as the global economy finds its …
First UK general election results due around 23.00 GMT on Thursday The central bank of Russia will probably cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.25% (10.30 GMT) We think that US headline retail sales rose strongly in November (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
12th December 2019
The Fed is likely stay on the side-lines for the foreseeable future (Wednesday, 19.00 GMT) We think a 50bp rate cut in Brazil will be the last of this cycle (Wednesday, 21.20 GMT) Lagarde may provide details on the ECB’s strategic policy review (Thursday, …
11th December 2019
We forecast that core CPI inflation in the US remained at 2.3% in November (13.30 GMT) FOMC likely to leave its target range for the fed funds rate at 1.50-1.75% (19.00 GMT) The central bank of Brazil will probably cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.50% …
10th December 2019
Norway’s headline CPI inflation probably slowed in November (07.00 GMT) We think that the UK economy grew by 0.1% m/m in October (09.30 GMT) Inflation in Egypt is likely to have remained below the central bank’s target Key Market Themes The jump in oil …
9th December 2019
Polls point to a Conservative win at the UK general election, but a majority is not a done deal Fed, ECB and SNB likely to keep their policy rates unchanged … … but central banks in Turkey and Russia will probably cut theirs Key Market Themes With …
6th December 2019
German industrial production probably stabilised in October (07.00 GMT) We forecast that US non-farm payrolls increased by 170,000 last month (13.30 GMT) US consumer confidence index likely to have remained at high level (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
5th December 2019
Our baseline assumption is that the returns in common currency from mid- and large-cap equities will be similar in the euro-zone and the US in 2020, after a decade in which those in the US have outperformed substantially. The elections there next year, …
4th December 2019
Spanish and Italian composite PMIs probably fell below 50 in November (08.15/08.45 GMT) We think that the US ISM non-manufacturing index rose a bit last month (15.00 GMT) Chile’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 1.50% (21.00 GMT) Key …
3rd December 2019
The RBA will probably keep rates unchanged, but we expect cuts next year (03.30 GMT) We forecast that South Africa’s GDP contracted in Q3 (09.30 GMT) … … but that Brazil’s GDP increased strongly (11.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While its new leadership will …
2nd December 2019
Japan’s industrial production probably fell after the tax hike in October (Thu., 23.50 GMT) We think that GDP contracted in Sweden while growth slowed in Finland and Denmark in Q3 Euro-zone inflation is likely to have risen in November (Fri., 10.00 GMT) …
28th November 2019
ESI likely to remain consistent with weak growth in the euro-zone (10.00 GMT) Retail sales in Japan probably plunged following October’s sales tax hike (23.50 GMT) We think that Switzerland’s economy contracted in Q3 (06.45 GMT) Key Market Themes We don’t …
27th November 2019
US Q3 GDP growth will probably be confirmed at 1.9% q/q annualised (13.30 GMT) US durable goods and income & spending reports for October are due … … and are likely to reiterate that underlying domestic demand growth has continued to slow Key Market …
26th November 2019
RBA Governor Lowe’s speech could shed some light on the likelihood of QE in Australia We think that consumer confidence picked up in the US in November (15.00 GMT) A rise in inflation is likely to force Nigeria’s central bank to stand pat Key Market …
25th November 2019
UK Conservative party to release its manifesto for the December general election US durable goods data for October were probably affected by the GM strike (Wednesday) We think that Japan’s retail sales plunged in October following the sales tax hike …
22nd November 2019
We do not expect to see a resumption of the “ reflationary ” pattern that until recently had characterised markets over the past month. This is primarily because we think that the global economy will remain stuck in a low gear for some time to come, and …
21st November 2019
Despite the sales tax hike, inflation in Japan is likely to have risen only slightly (23.30 GMT) PMIs in the US and the euro-zone probably edged up in November … … but we think that they remain consistent with weak GDP growth in both countries Key Market …
Fed minutes will probably reiterate that further rate cuts are unlikely (19.00 GMT) UK public finances may have improved since September (09.30 GMT) We think that euro-zone consumer confidence picked up in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although …
20th November 2019
Japan’s imports probably fell sharply after the October tax hike (Tue., 23.50 GMT) We think that China’s 1-year Loan Prime Rate edged down last month (Wed., 01.30 GMT) Fed minutes might reveal extent of support for a pause in rate cuts (Wed., 19.00 GMT) …
19th November 2019
US housing starts probably rebounded strongly in October (08.30 GMT) Hungary’s central bank likely to keep interest rates on hold (13.00 GMT) We think that Canada’s manufacturing sales were unchanged in September (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With the …
18th November 2019
Japan’s imports may have fallen sharply due to the sales tax hike (Tuesday) We think that China’s loan prime rate will be cut by 5bp (Wednesday) Fed minutes will probably reiterate that further easing is unlikely (Wednesday) Key Market Themes Although the …
15th November 2019
One reason to think that the relentless outperformance of the US stock market since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) will not continue for another decade is its valuation, which has become comparatively stretched over the past year . Admittedly, …
Unlike the consensus, we think that Japan’s GDP growth accelerated in Q3 (23.50 GMT) Spending and activity in China probably held up well in October (02.00 GMT) Policy rates in Egypt and Mexico are likely to be cut Key Market Themes While the US dollar …
13th November 2019
