You don’t need fluent French to understand what France’s finance minister was referring to when he warned of “un scénario à la Liz Truss” if the far right wins in upcoming legislative elections. Bruno Le Maire’s warning about a repeat of the turmoil that …
24th June 2024
We held an online Drop-In session late last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the June policy meetings of the Bank of England, US Federal Reserve and ECB. (See a recording here .) This Update answers several of the questions that …
Domestic demand driving the recovery The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we maintain our …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Business sentiment still poor June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far …
In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews upcoming US PCE inflation data, outlines the fiscal challenges facing the next UK Chancellor and explains how Chinese manufacturing …
23rd June 2024
The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s June meeting reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely but gave little away about how quickly the Bank will move. With another two CPI releases before the July meeting, our sense is that …
21st June 2024
Bond buying redux PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng this week again flagged the PBOC’s plans to start buying and selling government bonds and again argued that this wouldn’t constitute QE. (See our earlier discussion of the issue here .) The purpose of the new …
Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This also supports our view that the euro will remain on the …
Despite more central bank policy announcements this week, most currencies fluctuated within a tight range and the dollar seems set to end the week broadly flat – boosted a bit by the release of PMI data earlier today. Our sense is that this may remain the …
IMF praises Milei but more to be done The eighth review of Argentina’s $44bn IMF programme, which was published this week, is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. It notes that the “program remains firmly on track” and that …
SA: GNU stability will face reform challenges The announcement that a Government of National Unity (GNU) has been formed in South Africa, led by the ANC and DA has triggered a rally in local financial markets. But this may prove to be the easy part; …
The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in most major advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2. But weaker services activity hasn’t translated to softer price pressures, meaning central banks will take a gradual approach to loosening policy. Our …
Fiscal outlook deteriorates further Deficit going from bad to worse This week the CBO released new projections showing that the Federal deficit is expected to be $1.9trn, or 6.7% of GDP, in the current 2024 fiscal year that ends this September. (See Chart …
Sales barely budge in May Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell meaningfully in April. Either way, …
Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past episodes of country-specific flare-ups in the region, …
This week's weaker-than-expected activity data in China seems to be at odds with the broadly flat or slight increases in base metals prices this week. (see Chart 1.) The big picture however is, that the data released this week add to the argument that …
With all eyes on France, it is easy to forget that the Netherlands has also been experiencing political disruption over the last 12 months. But politics there has proved less disruptive to markets and we expect economic growth in the Netherlands to …
Strong population growth supporting retail sales Retail sales volumes performed a little better than we expected in April, but that seems to be largely due to strong population growth, with the interest rate-sensitive sectors performing poorly. Stats Can …
Economic soft landing not budging the polls It is striking how little recent economic events have influenced the polls ahead of the general election on 4 th July. This week’s news that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May meant that, just as we predicted …
We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that forecast up. Meanwhile, we think equities elsewhere will …
This week, the European Commission (EC) announced its intention to open “Excessive Deficit Procedures” (EDPs) against five euro-zone countries: France, Italy, Belgium, Slovakia and Malta. The decisions need to be signed off by the European Council, but …
Thailand – supportive fiscal policy Most countries in Asia are planning to tighten fiscal policy as they aim to put government finances on a more secure footing following a sharp rise in debt levels during the pandemic. One exception to this is …
With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to much in the way of property yield compression. Rather, …
Space for interest rate cuts narrows across CEE The Hungarian central bank’s decision to opt for a smaller 25bp interest rate cut at its meeting this week fits into a broader theme of policymakers in several parts of the EM world moving towards a slower …
Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming year or so, given our downbeat view on economic growth in …
Bond index inclusion a positive for government… The Indian government’s long-awaited ambition to have its local currency bonds included in global indices will finally come to fruition next Friday when JPMorgan Chase adds the country to its GBI-EM Global …
Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down? Our senior Europe and Markets economists held this assessment of the French legislative election results and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Back to stagflation? The sharp drop in the euro-zone Composite PMI in June suggests a solid recovery in the euro-zone economy is not a done deal, with activity having apparently …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky price pressures may mean rate cuts are slower and smaller June’s composite PMI suggests the economic recovery lost a bit of momentum towards the end of the second quarter. …
Rebound suggests lower inflation is beginning to support consumption The larger-than-expected increase in retail sales in May more than reversed the rain-driven weakness in April. And with inflation falling back to target, Bank Rate likely to be reduced …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Better news doesn’t mask fiscal challenge awaiting next government May’s public finances figures delivered some better news on the fiscal position after the recent run of …
Inflation slowdown creates dilemma for BoJ The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s April meeting released this week confirmed that many Board members were concerned about a renewed strengthening of price pressures caused by the weak exchange rate. Those …
Supply constraints are easing Some commentators have been arguing that it’s not weak demand but a shortage of supply that’s keeping GDP growth at 1% y/y. After all, the fact that job vacancies are still very high and employment growth remains very strong …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Underlying inflation will fall below 2% in second half The jump in headline inflation in May mostly reflected electricity price hikes that have further to run. By contrast, …
The G7 loan to Ukraine announced last week and the narrowing window to approve a new debt relief package once the payment suspension with private creditors ends in August has shone the spotlight on Ukraine’s large external financing needs. This Update …
20th June 2024
Having cut the policy rate by 25bp at its last meeting, we think the Riksbank will stick with its guidance that it will keep rates on hold next week. But with inflation likely to fall below 2% in the coming months, policymakers will probably cut the …
Despite the many twists and turns in bond markets this month amid mixed signals from central banks, most sovereign bonds in developed markets (DM) have rallied on net. We expect this to continue, with yields falling further in the coming months. The three …
The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots in the South. Thanks to a smaller impact from remote …
We see three scenarios for French fiscal policy in the coming months. Even in the best case the spread of French over German bond yields remains higher than before Macron called an early election. In the worst case there is a fully-fledged bond market and …
Overview – The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to be soft in the coming quarters. This is …
The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings over the past 48 hours or so underscore the point that, while the EM monetary easing cycle is likely to continue over the coming quarters, it will no longer be led by Central Europe and Latin America. Central …
The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause central banks to lose control of monetary policy or …
The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some support to our view that the Bank will first cut rates …
Housing starts fall to lowest level since June 2020 The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year. The 5.5% m/m decline in housing starts was driven by …
There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide with higher food inflation across Latin America, which …
Overview – We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target in most countries and likely to …
Overview – The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in core economies, notably Germany, while the …
Lebanon on verge of being drawn into the war Skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces have intensified, culminating in Israel’s approval of an “offensive” into Lebanon this week. Not only does this threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s prolonged …
BoE leaves the door open to an August rate cut The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. As a result, we still …
After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard. While we expect the EM monetary easing cycle to …
