US Economics Weekly Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a seven-month low of 65.6 in June, from 69.1, suggests that households are now struggling more under the weight of higher... 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Apr. 2024) 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of... 14th June 2024 · 9 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The General Election results – The morning after and the macro/markets outlook 1720168200 Will the outcome of the UK general election move the dial on the UK economic outlook? How much would a Labour government deviate from Conservative economic policy?
Japan Economics Update Bank will hike its policy rate once more in July The Bank of Japan disappointed markets today by announcing that it will only present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at its July meeting. We think it will also deliver a final policy... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will look past impact of energy rebates This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Bank of Japan Meeting (Jun. 24) The Bank of Japan announced today that it will present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting in July and we think it will also deliver a final policy rate hike then... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation... 13th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Will the next government deliver or deviate from its manifesto? While what’s in and what’s out of the election manifestos is informative, the bigger issue is whether the next government delivers or deviates from its manifesto. This Update sketches out three... 13th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (May) With the May producer price data also coming in weaker than expected, we now estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by only 0.11% m/m last month, which would take the annual core PCE inflation... 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (May 2024) Faltering demand and rising supply mean prices will slip back The May RICS survey was the weakest so far this year, as new demand faltered and sales slowed. With the quantity of homes coming onto the... 13th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (May 2024) Although the unemployment rate fell anew in May, leading indicators continued to point to a marked rise in the months ahead. All told, the data suggest that the RBA will remain in its “wait and see”... 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
