UK Economics Update

BoE may cut rates in August, but rates may reach 3.00% later

The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (May 2024)

The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024)

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand GDP (Q1 2024)

The modest rebound in GDP last quarter doesn’t change the bigger picture that the New Zealand economy is worse for wear. In fact, timely survey data suggest that things may well get worse before they...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (May 2024)

Trade volumes were little changed in May which suggests that net trade provided a small drag on GDP growth this quarter.

19th June 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Downtowns will recover, but not any time soon

The gap between downtown and suburban office vacancy rates has widened alarmingly since 2020. This reflects pandemic-driven changes to working patterns, exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown. In our...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (May 2024)

The strong rebound in manufacturing output in May was better than we expected but, given the softness of the earlier retail sales release, it does not change the big picture that second-quarter GDP...

18th June 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (May)

The soft May retail sales data support our view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth remains a little lacklustre in the second quarter too. Our forecast now stands at 1.9%.

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming...

18th June 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will only cut rates next year

The RBA discussed another rate hike at today’s meeting and an upside surprise to Q2 inflation could force its hand at its August meeting. However, with capacity constraints easing and government...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2024)

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jun. 2024)

The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage...

17th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks

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Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.

Canada Economics Weekly

Households deleveraging only slowly

The household debt-to-income ratio fell again in the first quarter, albeit because incomes continued to rise at a faster pace than debt levels. Although the aggregate situation is slowly improving...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read