US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update The implications of different combos of Prime Minister & President The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there... 26th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trump tariffs a net negative for Japan in the long run We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Good mood in non-US equities may continue to build up While we think that American exceptionalism in stock markets will continue this year as a bubble fuelled by enthusiasm around AI keeps inflating, we expect equities in other developed markets (DM) to... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly April back in play for first interest rate cut The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tax cuts now imply tax rises after the election Whatever the Chancellor gives away in tax cuts in the Budget, the next government will have to take away in the form of tax hikes after the election. This means any fiscal sugar rush for the economy... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy continued to shrink in Q1. 23rd February 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the plunge in imports the canary in the coalmine? Given that GDP has already contracted for two consecutive quarters, the plunge in imports in January and the fall in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since 2020 in February hardly instill... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Survey data point to resilience in economic activity Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: UK commercial property’s muted recovery 1709114400 All-property total returns will turn positive in 2024 but we don’t think the recovery will be much to write home about.
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in December means that retail sales volumes rose by close to 5% annualised last quarter, supporting the preliminary estimate that GDP growth turned positive again. With sales volumes... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
