Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers... 31st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 24) On balance, the modest decline in industrial production and the rebound in retail sales in April point to a decent rebound in GDP this quarter. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24) May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global growth to slow following strong Q1 The stronger than expected Q1 GDP data in several major economies suggest that the global economy got off to a strong start in 2024. But we expect global growth to fall back to a slightly below-trend... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market gradually cooling We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%. 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Core inflation pressures likely to remain muted We suspect that monthly core price growth will accelerate marginally from the very soft rates seen in the first four months of the year but, on the whole, core price pressures should remain muted... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Caution favours the hold The rapid easing in core inflation pressures this year means the Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates either next week or in July. While it will be a very close call, the recent resilience of... 29th May 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (May 2024) The tick up in mortgage rates since the start of the year has caused demand to soften. As a result, house prices are likely to tread water over the coming months. But our forecast that Bank Rate will... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 24) 29th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have the US and EZ downturns lagged the UK? While the timing of the sharp hit to UK commercial real estate values owes much to the ill-fated “mini-Budget” of September 2022, we think the UK’s role in leading the valuation downgrades also owes... 28th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar. 2024) The solid 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in March suggests that competition among buyers for the limited number of second-hand homes on the market remains strong. We expect that to continue for the... 28th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mission (almost) accomplished The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting were, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
