Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (April) The small increase in the Riksbank’s target CPIF measure of inflation, which excludes the effect of changes in interest rates, from 2.2% in March to 2.3% in April, was broadly as expected (consensus 2... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renewed interest in ‘meme’ stocks Even if interest in ‘meme’ stocks rebounds following a renewed surge in GameStop’s share price, some of the telltale signs that a bubble in the broader stock market may be entering its final stages –... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Mortgage rates climbed back above 7% last month but we think that trend will soon reverse, with rates falling to 6.5% by year-end. Lower borrowing costs will draw more mortgaged buyers into the market... 14th May 2024 · 1 min read
Event UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts 1716366600 We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th
Event Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle? 1717682400 We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Apr.) The bigger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increases in both all items and core final demand producer prices in April were mainly due to downward revisions to earlier months, with the 0.2% m/m gains in March... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar. 2024) While the further easing in regular private sector pay growth in March suggests that wage pressures faded a bit faster than the Bank of England expected, broader measures of wage growth are probably... 14th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy... 14th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Is renting becoming the preserve of the rich? High net migration has led to a big jump in demand for rental properties that has pushed up the cost of rent compared to the average salary. But comparing rents to average pay is not as accurate a... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Was April the sweetest or the cruellest month? After a quiet week for data this week, following April’s softer Employment Report, things will heat up again next week with April’s CPI report. 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to wait a little longer before cutting interest rates The strength of the April labour market data means we now expect the Bank of Canada to begin its loosening cycle in July, rather than June. Nonetheless, the sharp growth in labour supply and... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Does a weak yen spell trouble for Japanese equities? Although Japan’s equities and currency have generally moved in tandem in recent weeks, we think the historical inverse relationship between the two will reassert itself before long. We expect a... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Confidence (May) The renewed slump in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to a six-month low of 67.4 in May, from 77.2, is hard to explain given that gasoline prices are now falling again, the stock... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
