Europe Economics Update Surveys point to weakness in construction to come Euro-zone construction output picked up at the beginning of this year but we don’t think this was the beginning of a sustained rebound. Surveys suggest that output will decline in the next few months... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The trade deficit narrowed slightly in March to $69.4bn, from $69.5bn, with exports down by 2.0% m/m and imports falling by 1.6%. The $5.1bn decline in goods exports included a $1.2bn drop in civilian... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for cyclicals and defensives We envisage cyclical sectors generally continuing to outperform defensive ones in the S&P 500 through the end of 2025. That reflects our view about the economic outlook; our expectation that hype... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Will high labour cost growth thwart disinflation? Rapid growth in unit labour costs poses an upside risk to core inflation in many advanced economies. However, firms’ pricing power is weakening and we think that it will continue to do so. As a result... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Could the BoE tee up a June rate cut? The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 9th May and we suspect it will imply it’s still not quite ready to cut rates. That said, there’s a chance it instead... 2nd May 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (April) The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates... 2nd May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. Moreover, while he... 1st May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (May) The Fed admitted in the statement issued after today’s FOMC meeting that “in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the… 2% inflation objective”. Otherwise, today’s statement... 1st May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar's strength not a threat to US economy The dollar’s rise is attracting a lot of attention, but is nowhere near big enough yet to have any significant impact on US inflation, although it does appear to be weighing on exports. In real trade... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent surge in Treasury yields We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities. 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour demand easing, wage growth more resilient The March JOLTS data showed clearer signs that labour market tightness is continuing to ease. Slower downward progress in wage growth could be concerning, but for now it still appears to be moving... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index back below the theoretical 50.0 no-change level in April suggests that the nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector may already have gone into reverse... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Price Index (Apr. 2024) The second consecutive decline in the Nationwide house price index in April confirms that the rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year will prevent further near-term price gains. But as we... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The housing rebound that began early last year continued to lose momentum in April. With affordability likely to remain stretched for the foreseeable future, house price growth will only ease further... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2024) 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
