Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equities still at the mercy of inflation The adverse reaction in the stock market to today’s report on US consumer prices suggests inflation still matters to investors in equities, even if it has become a less important concern for them than... 11th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to kick off loosening cycle with a 25bp cut With the labour market data more consistent with an economic slowdown rather than a collapse, we think the Fed will begin its rate cutting cycle with a measured 25bp reduction at next week’s FOMC... 11th September 2024 · 9 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in August appears to be consistent with a slightly below-target 0.15% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. But we doubt that modest... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2024) The economy stagnated in July, but that doesn’t mean the UK is on the cusp of another recession and we still think the stickiness of inflation will keep the Bank on hold in September. 11th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ will eventually cut rates to 2.25% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has always ended up cutting interest rates by more than it anticipated at the start of previous easing cycles. We think this time won’t be any different and expect the... 10th September 2024 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul. 2024) The further easing in wage growth will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign that labour market conditions are continuing to cool. But we doubt this will be enough to prompt a back-to-back 25... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to gauge recession risk in DMs Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In... 9th September 2024 · 16 mins read
US Economics Weekly August jobs report just about enough for the Fed The data releases this week did not signal a clear winner in the 25bp versus 50bp cut debate, but the speech from Governor Christopher Waller nonetheless suggests that the small improvement in the... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession possible, full recession unlikely We don’t think the lingering concerns about the health of the US economy mean that the chances of the UK economy slipping back into recession are much higher. Instead, the fading drag from higher... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The rebound in employment in August should soothe fears about the risk that the economy is taking a turn for the worse, although the 0.2%-point jump in the unemployment rate to 6.6% presents clear... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 142,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in August was probably just enough to tip the Fed in favour of a measured 25bp rate cut this month, rather than a more dramatic move, but the labour... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Aug. 2024) The second consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in August supports our view that the fall in the Nationwide house price index in the same month was a blip and isn’t the start of... 6th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
