Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 24) The labour market and population data released today are consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will only lower interest rates in Q2 2025. 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opts to start loosening cycle with a bang The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp today, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections point to smaller 25bp cuts at the remaining two FOMC... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Sep) The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections only shows an additional 50bp of cuts between now and the end... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug. 2024) The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) CPI inflation stayed at 2.2% in August (consensus & CE 2.2%, BoE 2.4%), but the rise in services inflation from 5.2% to 5.6% suggests the Bank of England will probably press the pause button on... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Public demand limiting RBA’s scope to cut rates Even though state and federal budgets point to a sharp slowdown in public demand in 2024/25, our analysis suggests that the public sector will keep providing a sizeable boost to GDP growth. And if we... 18th September 2024 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024) Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) We doubt the small fall in Nationwide house prices in August was the start of a renewed downturn. Surveys suggest the recent declines in mortgage rates have led to an increase in housing demand, while... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Aug. 2024) Manufacturing output rebounded strongly in August as the temporary disruptions to production from the previous month were reversed. Together with last month’s solid gain in control group retail sales... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The stronger-than-expected retail sales data for August suggest that, boosted by rapid wealth gains and falling energy prices, consumers continue to spend freely despite the labour market slowdown... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) The return of headline inflation to the 2.0% target in August was mainly due to favourable base effects and is likely to be short-lived, with inflation rebounding to as high as 2.5% by the turn of the... 17th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (August 2024) Even though the trade balance held up much better than most had anticipated in August, net trade will still provide a large drag on Q3 GDP growth. 18th September 2024 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will stick to hawkish message The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably stick to its hawkish message at its upcoming meeting. And while GDP growth is set to disappoint the Bank’s optimistic projections, it will take a clear... 17th September 2024 · 8 mins read
