Global Economics Update Five key themes in world trade In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is... 19th September 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2024) The slump in existing home sales in August shows that the sharp fall in mortgage rates since late-July is yet to stimulate the market, although the signs of life in last week’s purchase mortgage... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE stresses rate cuts will be gradual, but rates may still fall to 3% By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and will continue to cut interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one more 25... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19 Sep. 2024) By leaving interest rates at 5.00% the Bank of England showed it is more like the ECB than the Fed and is cutting interest rates gradually rather than rapidly. We expect only one further 25bps cut... 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 24) The labour market and population data released today are consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will only lower interest rates in Q2 2025. 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed opts to start loosening cycle with a bang The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp today, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections point to smaller 25bp cuts at the remaining two FOMC... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Sep) The Fed did cut its policy rate by a bigger 50bp, to between 4.75% and 5.00%, but the vote was not unanimous and the new rate projections only shows an additional 50bp of cuts between now and the end... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Aug. 2024) The large rise in housing starts in August was due to a rebound in starts in the south, confirming that the July slump was a temporary disruption caused by Hurricane Beryl. The increase in permits... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) CPI inflation stayed at 2.2% in August (consensus & CE 2.2%, BoE 2.4%), but the rise in services inflation from 5.2% to 5.6% suggests the Bank of England will probably press the pause button on... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Public demand limiting RBA’s scope to cut rates Even though state and federal budgets point to a sharp slowdown in public demand in 2024/25, our analysis suggests that the public sector will keep providing a sizeable boost to GDP growth. And if we... 18th September 2024 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Will the dollar catch a break anytime soon? We doubt the gap between expected interest rates in the US and its trading partners will keep shrinking, given what’s priced into the money markets. That could potentially buoy the dollar in time... 17th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Sep. 2024) Increased supply and weaker demand are pushing down rents in several cities. That raises the risk of another leg down for apartment prices, despite the recent drop in mortgage rates. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Lower gasoline prices to cushion consumers Despite the US being a net oil exporter, the recent plunge in the oil price will be a tailwind for the economy, as lower gasoline prices support consumer confidence and real consumption. The Fed will... 17th September 2024 · 3 mins read
