UK Economics Update How worried should we be about wage growth? While wage growth will continue to slow, the smaller-than-expected fall in September supports our view that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at their current level of 5.25% until late in... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The softer 0.2% m/m rise in core consumer prices in October makes it even less likely that the Fed will raise rates any further, and we expect a continued decline in inflation over the coming months... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep./Oct. 2023) With wage growth continuing to ease and signs that a further loosening in the labour market lies ahead, higher interest rates appear to be gradually working. But our view that wage growth will ease... 14th November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct) The second consecutive monthly decline in outstanding commercial real estate loan balances held by US banks in October means the data are starting to reflect the pullback in real estate lending that... 13th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental affordability at its worst for over a decade While the official measure of rental growth is running at record highs, pay has risen even faster. So, at face value rental affordability is good by historic standards. But that doesn’t account for... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unlikely to follow through with hawkish message The Bank of Canada’s latest Summary of Deliberations was more hawkish than most probably expected, with some members of the Governing Council still seemingly arguing for further rate hikes. That said... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy disinflation; credit conditions still tight Despite the ongoing war in the Middle East, crude oil prices have slumped. The upshot is that headline CPI inflation, which rebounded from a low of 3.1% in June to 3.7% in September, should be back... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update 2024-27 completions to be below pre-pandemic levels With vacancy set to stay elevated, development finance remaining expensive, and values to continue falling next year, we expect construction starts will be weak in all sectors over the next 12 months... 10th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Impact of higher rates spreading beyond housing Whether or not Q3 marked the start of a recession, the recent resilience of the economy appears to be fading as the drag from higher interest rates grows. The weakness in the housing market has... 10th November 2023 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ preparing the path for further policy changes Governor Ueda has this week been preparing the ground for the next steps in the BoJ’s retreat from ultra-loose policy. Stronger recent wage data and increasing pressure for further, larger pay hikes... 10th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks are done tightening The RBA's decision to lift rates by 25bp earlier this week does not mark a full-fledged resumption of its hiking cycle. Rather, we believe the Bank was simply taking out additional insurance to make... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep./Q3 2023) The Q3 GDP data will spark a big debate about whether or not the economy is in recession (the published growth rate was 0.0% q/q, but GDP declined by 0.03% or £173m). But the key point is that the... 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
