US Economics Update A corollary to the Sahm rule With the unemployment rate rising, the Sahm rule will probably be triggered soon. That will prompt claims a recession has started but, since that rise is due to increased labour supply as much as it... 6th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily High-yield credit spreads may rise again We think the risks to the “goldilocks” view now being discounted in markets are skewed towards a bigger slowdown in the US economy than is currently discounted, driving credit spreads up over the... 6th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Risk of forced home sales is rising There are increasing signs that the most leveraged borrowers are struggling to refinance their mortgages with traditional lenders. The small but meaningful number of insured mortgage holders who took... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fourth quarter bringing renewed slowdown There is now mounting evidence that the economy is set for a renewed slowdown in the fourth quarter and that inflationary pressures from the labour market continue to ease. Although markets have... 3rd November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly In recession Employment edged up in October but the broad-based weakness of GDP growth, the depressed business surveys and the rapidly weakening housing market all suggest that the economy is in the early stages... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The more modest rise in employment and essentially unchanged hours worked in October suggest that labour demand is easing gradually, and the 0.2%-pt rise in the unemployment rate shows that the... 3rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Oct.) The muted 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October is another sign that the economy’s strength in the third quarter is likely to unwind in the fourth. With wage growth also continuing to slow, it... 3rd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doth the Old Lady protest too much on rate cuts? The surge in business insolvencies and slump in M4 money growth suggest that the Bank of England maybe protesting too much when it stressed this week that interest rate cuts are far away. But the Bank... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Recession still likely in Australia Timely data suggest that both goods and services consumption gained traction last quarter. Therefore, even with a huge drag on growth from net trade, it increasingly appears that the economy managed... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tighter fiscal policy will weigh on activity next year Even though the Bank of Japan de facto ended Yield Curve Control this week, the yen slid to a fresh one-year low against the dollar. And while it has gained some lost ground since then as US Treasury... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show no sign of recovery on the horizon October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity continued to contract at the beginning of Q4 and forward-looking indicators point to further weakness ahead. 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update More pain to come for first-time buyers The rise in the US homeownership rate has stalled, driven by a drop in the proportion of under-35s that own their home. That’s down to higher mortgage rates reducing the number of first-time buyers... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE doubles down on signal that rate cuts are far away The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Bleak outlook for consumer spending across DMs Although consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient in the US so far this year, it has weakened in other advanced economies. And as the lagged effects of high interest rates filter through to... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
