UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (2nd Nov. 2023) The Bank’s decision to leave interest rates at 5.25% for the second time in a row and to double down on the message that rates cuts are far away supports our view that rates will stay at 5.25% until... 2nd November 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Sep. 23) 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update What if all the temporary residents leave? The government today confirmed that it intends to welcome an increasing number of permanent residents in the next couple of years. Even if the number of permanent residents continues to rise, however... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s focus will shift to rate cuts before long By leaving rates unchanged while continuing to flag the possibility of further tightening to come, the Fed indicated today that it remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. But Chair Jerome Powell appeared to... 1st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury term premia may not fall back The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Sharper fall in wage growth still on the cards The September JOLTS data suggest that the labour market is loosening at a slightly slower pace, but still point to a sharper fall in wage growth ahead. There is little support for the idea that... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) September’s employment growth was below the average for 2023 thus far, recording 0.4% 3m/3m across our 30 covered metros once seasonally-adjusted. Meanwhile, office-based jobs remained unchanged on... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The surprise slump in the ISM manufacturing index to 46.7 in October, from 49.0, suggests the recent recovery in factory-sector activity is fading and supports our view that the upturn in economic... 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus High bond yields to push up Italy’s debt ratio to 150% The prospect of a long period of high bond yields and some signs of fiscal slippage by Prime Minister Meloni’s government have worsened the outlook for public finances in Italy. We now think the debt... 1st November 2023 · 19 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct. 2023) The large increase in house prices in October was a massive surprise given higher mortgage rates should be severely restricting the number of people able to buy and the amount they can spend. But at... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Faster wage growth should give BoJ confidence to tighten With wage growth set to strengthen further over the coming year, we think the Bank of Japan will soon have sufficient confidence in the sustainability of higher inflation to end negative interest... 1st November 2023 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2023) With the balance of demand and supply in the labour market showing further improvement, we’re more convinced than ever that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t lift rates any higher. 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
