The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears to be going into reverse, however, and should boost second-quarter GDP. The decline in first-quarter GDP was actually smaller than the 2.0% contraction we were expecting following the big jump in goods imports in March reported yesterday. As it turns out, although it didn’t show up in the monthly data, that surge in imports was partly offset by a much bigger-than-expected 2.3% point boost from stronger inventory accumulation.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services