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Will Trump be good or bad for the economy?

The market reaction to Donald Trump’s election victory suggests that, with the Republicans closing in on a clean sweep of Congress too, his return to the White House will be a net positive for the economy. We remain highly sceptical that the Republicans will deliver any large fiscal stimulus, however. Instead, to our minds, the combined drag from immigration curbs and new tariffs mean that, in net terms, Trump’s return is likely to be a negative for the economy.

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