Despite the recent resilience of the hard economic data, the most reliable forward-looking indicators suggest that a recession is unavoidable – our six-month ahead composite model puts the odds at close to 90%.
China Drop-In (29th Nov.): Join our special briefing on the global macro and market consequences of China’s latest zero-COVID lockdowns. Register here.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services