The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy assumptions around growth and oil prices. Policymakers’ (and the consensus) view that the public debt ratio will stabilise over the medium term looks too sanguine; we think it’s more likely to rise. This points to rising risk premia on Colombian financial assets and is one of the main reasons why we expect the peso to fall further in the coming years.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services