The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not fall by that much. But we still expect a total decline of 23% from February to April, taking real monthly GDP to $1.5trn annualised, the lowest since 2006. There have at least been positive signs in the past month: Consumer confidence has stabilised, albeit still near a record-low level, while small business confidence has rebounded strongly. The Apple and Google mobility reports show the number of journeys taken has increased markedly since April, although so far most of those extra journeys seem to be to parks rather than shops or workplaces. In other words, those extra trips are unlikely to result in much of a rebound in GDP in May. We expect a 5% m/m rise, followed by a 10% rise in June, which would still result in a quarterly contraction of 45% annualised.
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