Trump’s tariffs have darkened the outlook for industrial demand across Europe, but Germany looks more exposed than most. Even if the paused 20% reciprocal tariff on EU imports is not reinstated, the blanket 10% tariff and product-specific tariffs, most notably on autos, remain in place and mean the recovery in leasing over the next year or so will be slower than previously expected. As a result, we have nudged down our German prime logistics rent forecasts. However, given tight supply and an anticipated boost to industrial demand from more defence and infrastructure spending further ahead, forecast rent growth only slightly trails the euro-zone average over the next five years.
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