GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed more slowly from here on, we expect the EM monetary easing cycle to broaden out as Asian central banks join their Central European and Latin American counterparts in cutting rates. Our financial risk indicators suggest that vulnerabilities in the emerging world have eased, with risks concentrated in frontier markets.
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