Poland’s central bank (NBP) announced (very late by its usual standards) that it had left interest rates unchanged at 6.75% at today’s MPC meeting, confirming previous comments from policymakers that they believe the current state of monetary conditions and a slowdown in growth will be enough to bring inflation back to target in the coming years. Further rate hikes look unlikely but we think the NBP is being overly sanguine on inflation risks and that, at the very least, interest rates will need to stay at a high level throughout 2023 and 2024.
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