The sharp fall in oil prices over the past week shows that fears of a US recession have so far outweighed concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But we think that oil prices have fallen too far, and will rise back to $80pb by the end of the year. After all, our base case is that a recession in the US will be avoided, and more stimulus in China should support oil demand. What’s more, if prices stay low, OPEC+ would probably delay its plans to increase oil output from October.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services