Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Nov. 2024) The rise in manufacturing sales in November was entirely due to higher prices, with sales volumes unchanged. While the recovery in activity took a breather, the 1.8% m/m rise in new orders and... 15th January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Labour Force Survey (Dec. 2024) The huge gain in employment in December supports our view that labour market conditions are strengthening, despite the recent upward trend in the unemployment rate. While weakness in private sector... 10th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Nov. 2024) The third consecutive rise in export volumes in November provides further evidence that the economy was gaining momentum at the end of last year. US tariffs could cause the recovery to go into reverse... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct. 2024) The stronger-than-expected increase in GDP in October and upward revisions to the prior two months leaves fourth-quarter growth on track to accelerate to 2% annualised, raising the chance of the Bank... 23rd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Oct. 2024) Retail sales volumes were unchanged in October, bringing a run of strong consecutive monthly gains to an end. Moreover, the preliminary estimate that sales values were unchanged in November too... 20th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation back below the 2.0% target in November reflected steep price falls in a handful of components related to consumer goods, driven by Black Friday discounts, which... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024) The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by another 50bp today, the accompanying communications were more hawkish than might have been expected, with the Bank no longer indicating that further... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov.) We disagree with the market reaction to November's Labour Force Survey, implying that the jump in the unemployment rate makes a 50bp cut much more likely. A slowdown in immigration will soon act to... 6th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.) The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) With headline inflation still at target and given the Bank’s recent emphasis on the need to ensure that GDP growth and the labour market pick up again, the upside surprise to core inflation in October... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2024) Despite the 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September, the data still appear consistent with the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% that month. Although manufacturing has been... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2024) The muted rise in employment in October was even weaker than it seems, as, like in September, it was propped up by strong gains in youth employment. While the unchanged unemployment rate will reassure... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug.) The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
