Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The downward surprise to CPI inflation in March, along with the first target-consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in eight months, at the margin raise the odds of a rate cut by the Bank of... 15th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb 2025) The large fall in exports in February was to be expected given the (albeit temporary) imposition of tariffs on goods imports into the US that month. While Canada may have gotten off relatively lightly... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2025) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in January, along with an upward revision to the December outturn, shows the economy still had solid momentum at the start of this year. The weak... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The sharp drop in retail sales volumes in January is not a major concern, coming off a massive GST holiday-driven surge the month before. The worry is that it could signal what's to come, with the... 21st March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The large upside surprise to CPI inflation in February, together with another set of above-target consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median, reduces the chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest... 18th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Jan. 2025) The large rises in both manufacturing and wholesale sales volumes at the start of the year suggest that GDP may have done even better than the flash estimate of a 0.3% m/m rise in January, although... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2025) The essentially unchanged level of employment in February was probably mostly due to the unseasonably severe winter weather during the survey reference week rather than the threat of US tariffs... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan 2025) The huge increase in exports in January was in line with the timely advance US data released last week and implies US importers looked to front-run tariffs ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the Oval... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump gives one-month reprieve on Canada & Mexico auto tariffs President Donald Trump's decision to grant a one-month exemption to the Big Three Automakers (Ford, GM & Stellantis) is something of a disappointment given the earlier heavy hints from his Commerce... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2024 and Dec) The 2.6% annualised gain in GDP last quarter was much stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for a 1.8% increase and was accompanied by sizeable upward revisions to data in previous quarters... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) The jump in retail sales in December was partly due to the GST holiday, but also reflected strong gains in sectors that were unaffected by tax changes. Nonetheless, with sales dropping back in January... 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The GST holiday meant that headline inflation remained below the 2% target in January, but there is clear evidence that underlying inflation pressures are building. Given the tariff threat hanging... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2024) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in December suggests that the earlier recovery in the sector has hit a wall. New orders rose only modestly, by 1.3%, confounding hopes that the sector... 14th February 2025 · 1 min read
