Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation back below the 2.0% target in November reflected steep price falls in a handful of components related to consumer goods, driven by Black Friday discounts, which... 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024) The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec. 2024) 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Nov.) We disagree with the market reaction to November's Labour Force Survey, implying that the jump in the unemployment rate makes a 50bp cut much more likely. A slowdown in immigration will soon act to... 6th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.) The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be... 29th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October... 22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) With headline inflation still at target and given the Bank’s recent emphasis on the need to ensure that GDP growth and the labour market pick up again, the upside surprise to core inflation in October... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2024) Despite the 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September, the data still appear consistent with the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% that month. Although manufacturing has been... 15th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2024) The muted rise in employment in October was even weaker than it seems, as, like in September, it was propped up by strong gains in youth employment. While the unchanged unemployment rate will reassure... 8th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost... 5th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug.) The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Retail Sales (Aug. 2024) The increase in retail sales in August and flash estimate for another rise in September poses an upside risk to the Bank of Canada’s forecast of household consumption in the third quarter. If realised... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024) The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in... 23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Aug. 2024) The 0.8% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August looks consistent with the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged that month, leaving the economy on track for a weaker third quarter... 16th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The large downside surprise to headline inflation in September and muted monthly gains in the CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures support our view that the Bank of Canada will choose a more... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Sep. 2024) The stronger rise in employment and fall in the unemployment rate in September were largely due to a seasonal quirk, as the weak summer jobs market meant that fewer young workers left positions than... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
