Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF aid crucial to heading off an external financing crisis North Africa’s hefty external financing requirements, coupled with turmoil in the global financial markets, have increased the risk that the region could be hit by a balance of payments crisis... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth forecasts cut for 2012 Following recent downward revisions to our forecasts for growth across the developed and emerging markets, we have also cut our forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. We now... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increasing female participation in Saudi could boost growth Saudi Arabia’s move to allow women to vote (and run) in municipal elections, and to be appointed to the Shoura Council, is an important and positive political move. But the economic benefits are... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt needs the IMF to avoid an external funding crisis Fresh concerns that Egypt could face a fiscal and external funding crisis over the next three years have pushed the country back to the IMF. In June, Egypt turned its back on offers of help from... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to expect a strong rebound in the Egyptian economy The preliminary data from Egypt suggest that GDP grew by 1.8% y/y in the 2010/11 fiscal year (which runs from July to June). The output data (if not revised when more details are released on the 22nd)... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are the Gulf States at risk from their exposure to the US? We think that the much-reported risks to the value of the foreign assets held by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from the US economic troubles are overstated. Admittedly, the hydrocarbon... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's GDP continues to grow despite the social unrest Higher oil and manufacturing revenues helped to offset the decline in Bahrain’s services sector in the second quarter of this year. What’s more, although the country’s GDP grew by only 0.8% y/y in Q2... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will a fall in the oil price affect Saudi Arabia’s spending plans? Concerns that the global economy may fall into recession again have increased the likelihood of a drop in the oil price, which in turn poses some downside risks to Saudi Arabia’s economy. Indeed, a... 3rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s unemployment set to stay in double digits until 2013 Egypt’s second quarter unemployment data, in keeping with other industrial indicators, reflect the poor overall state of the economy. Although the jobless rate appears to have levelled off (at just... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates to stay on hold for the foreseeable future There were no surprises from Egypt’s Central Bank today as the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at a record low of 8.25%. With the economy still weak, and core inflation (the bank’s... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for Libya? The Libyan economy may begin to feel the benefits of ‘regime change’ sooner than many commentators expect. Given the composition of the Transitional National Council (TNC) and Libya’s vast financial... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the outlook for inflation in the GCC? The recent data show that inflation has either stabilised or started to fall in most Gulf countries over the past few months. And with a fall in food inflation set to outweigh a stimulus-related rise... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia and Morocco are most at risk from the euro-zone crisis It goes without saying that the risks to North Africa’s economies from the deepening crisis in the euro-zone have increased in recent weeks. The EU is the major trading partner and source of tourism... 12th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf economies withstand an oil price shock? The drop in the oil price over the past two weeks has led to concerns that the Gulf States will have to scale back their recent spending plans. Admittedly, the current budget commitments are likely to... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the impact of Saudi Arabia’s aid to Jordan? Saudi Arabia’s additional $1 billion in aid to Jordan will help to avert a short-term fiscal crisis in the resource-poor country. But we are more concerned that this aid will lead to government... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can it get any worse for the Arab world’s equity markets? Most equity markets in the Arab world have bounced back from the lows reached in March when regional political risks were at their highest. Since the initial bounce though, overall market performance... 15th July 2011 · 1 min read