Middle East & North Africa Economics Update It could end in tears for Saudi stocks Given the positive outlook for the economy, relative political stability and fresh hopes that the stock market will open to foreign investors this year, Saudi equities have soared in the first quarter... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Explaining our forecasts for the Gulf economies We think that GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could fall to around 3.8% in 2012, down from 7.2% last year (and lower than most analysts expect). Admittedly, healthy balance... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, awaiting IMF deal Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) kept interests rates on hold today. And although it looks like the CBE is taking small steps towards easing policy, much now hinges on whether an IMF deal can be agreed. If... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt & the IMF: Five key questions An IMF team has arrived in Cairo for talks, due to start today, on a $3.2bn loan facility for Egypt. In this Update we answer five key questions that will determine how events are likely to play out... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Significant downside risks to the UAE's non-oil economy The UAE’s economy minister has suggested that GDP grew by 3.3% last year, only marginally above growth in 2010 and well below most expectations (CE 3.5%; Consensus 4.0%). We think that tight lending... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflationary pressures mounting in Saudi Arabia and Egypt In contrast to other regions, February’s inflation data from Saudi Arabia and Egypt show that price pressures are mounting. In Saudi, strong domestic demand and favourable base effects are largely to... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa’s new parliaments at risk of losing sight of economy A lack of policy direction in North Africa is jeopardising the already-sluggish economic recovery. Unemployment has reached record highs in both Egypt and Tunisia, fiscal and external positions are... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank is running out of ammunition At first glance, today’s data showing that the pace of decline in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves slowed last month is good news. Indeed, Egyptian markets have been buoyed by hopes that the economy... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s economy on slow recovery path Dubai’s equities soared by 26% since the beginning of the year on the back of fading concerns that government-related entities (GREs) will struggle to refinance their maturing debt this year and... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s confused policy will hamper its recovery Recent comments from Saudi Arabia that its promises of financial aid to Egypt have been held back by the latter are at odds with earlier remarks from the Egyptian Prime Minister which lambasted... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for healthy growth After a stellar performance in 2011, Saudi Arabia’s private businesses are likely to see another year of healthy growth in 2012. We expect government spending to rise again this year, and bank lending... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC: full political union a non-starter King Abdullah’s plan for a full political union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is unlikely to materialise. Although each country within the GCC is similar both in terms of economic structure... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update In spite of recent plans, IMF help is still needed in Egypt With the government committed to safeguarding the pound and foreign funding yet to materialise, Egypt looks set to turn to its expatriates to raise debt finance. But while this would help capital... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The 'Arab Spring' one year on This Saturday marks a year since the end of Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade reign over Egypt. Only a few weeks before that, Tunisia’s revolution ended with the toppling of the Ben Ali regime. Since then... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read