Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Increase in Egypt’s FX reserves unlikely to be sustained The increase in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves in April is good news but it is unlikely to last. The fact is that last month’s rise is very small. What’s more, it is largely due to a one-off... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Constitution key for Egypt’s new president Today marks the beginning of campaigning for Egypt’s presidential elections. While most commentators are focusing on the likely winner, we think that the definition of the exact powers of Egypt’s next... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai bond issue will not detract from GREs’ troubles The high level of interest in this week’s Sukuk issuance by Dubai is a sign of renewed confidence in the emirate’s debt. However, since no funds will be allocated to Dubai’s government-related... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: hopes fading for a quick deal with the IMF The decision by the Egyptian parliament to reject the government’s economic plan highlights a growing rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military-appointed administration. Worryingly, this... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Europe’s deleveraging to increase pressure on Gulf businesses Ample liquidity coupled with a decreasing reliance on foreign funding mean that most banks in the Gulf are well-placed to weather any storm in the euro-zone’s financial system. But deleveraging in... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Downside risks to Saudi equities are high By most measures, Saudi stocks appear to be undervalued by up to 30%. Recent earnings data have also beaten analysts’ estimates and expectations for profit growth are strong leading many to suggest... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: political chaos raises risk of major economic crisis Various events over the past couple of days have thrown Egypt’s fragile political transition into disarray. These developments raise fresh doubts over the country’s ability to secure external... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does our new oil price forecast mean for the Gulf? On the back of a brighter outlook for the US economy and concerns over supply, we have nudged up our forecast for Brent crude prices to end the year at $95 per barrel ($85pb previously). Although this... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt takes a turn for the worse Another month, another fall in Egypt’s foreign currency reserves. Admittedly, the pace of decline appears to be easing. But with rising tensions between the interim government, the Muslim Brotherhood... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update It could end in tears for Saudi stocks Given the positive outlook for the economy, relative political stability and fresh hopes that the stock market will open to foreign investors this year, Saudi equities have soared in the first quarter... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Explaining our forecasts for the Gulf economies We think that GDP growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries could fall to around 3.8% in 2012, down from 7.2% last year (and lower than most analysts expect). Admittedly, healthy balance... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rates on hold, awaiting IMF deal Egypt’s Central Bank (CBE) kept interests rates on hold today. And although it looks like the CBE is taking small steps towards easing policy, much now hinges on whether an IMF deal can be agreed. If... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt & the IMF: Five key questions An IMF team has arrived in Cairo for talks, due to start today, on a $3.2bn loan facility for Egypt. In this Update we answer five key questions that will determine how events are likely to play out... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Mar.) The performance of equity markets across the Arab world has diverged since the beginning of the year. Stock markets in Egypt, Dubai and Saudi outperfromed the rest of the region and indeed the MSCI... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
