Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Oil Minister’s comments point to higher spending in 2012 Comments earlier this week from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi indicating that the government is comfortable with a crude oil price of $100pb (up from $70-80 previously) suggests that public... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s request from the IMF will not be enough Egypt’s decision to request a $3.2 billion stand-by facility from the IMF will not be enough to cover its external funding needs in 2012. Instead, it will need at least double that amount to avoid a... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF will need to address Egypt's external funding problems The Egyptian government’s decision to resume negotiations with the IMF is good news. The proposed $3 billion facility would help plug a gaping hole in the budget. But it would not be sufficient to... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran crisis could keep most Gulf markets subdued in 2012 At first glance, the Gulf’s lack of trade links with Iran means that international sanctions will have little impact on most of the oil-rich region’s economies. Indeed, Iran’s threat to block the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-importers will have no room for fiscal manoeuvre in 2012 The increase in the costs of food and fuel subsidies, and public sector salaries, has left most oil-importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with no room to counteract the impact of a... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC summit reveals lack of unity on economic policy Given the political turmoil in the Arab world and growing concerns of a conflict with Iran, it is unsurprising that politics took centre stage at the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) 32nd Summit this... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s GDP recovers but challenging times ahead Today’s reports that Egypt’s GDP grew by 0.5% y/y in the third quarter suggest that the economy has now recovered most of the initial losses in output brought about by the social unrest. However... 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Our first thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s ministerial reshuffle Yesterday’s ministerial reshuffle in Saudi Arabia reflects the fact that previous administrations have fallen well short of the targets for growth and employment set out in the recent National... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai not yet out of the woods Despite growing concerns, we think that Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs) should be able to service the $3.8 billion in bonds that mature next year. Instead, the more pressing issue is the on... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the UAE's stimulus Following similar moves in other Gulf countries, the UAE announced an increase of up to 100% in the pay of some public sector workers, as well as the introduction of a $2.7 billion fund to help low... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political tensions in Kuwait could accelerate reforms On the face of it, the resignation of the Kuwaiti government adds to the general sense that political risks in the Arab world are escalating once again. However, given that Kuwait is much wealthier... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rate hike: another by-product of the unrest Today’s rate hike by 100 bps to 9.25% is a clear sign that Egypt’s central bank is increasingly concerned over growing balance of payments strains and the risk of a currency crisis. Although the... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt election concerns add to already high financing risks The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
