Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Financing risk, not Islamist win, is the greatest threat in Egypt Although the official results from Egypt’s first round of elections have not yet been released, it is almost certain that the Freedom and Justice party (the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood)... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the UAE's stimulus Following similar moves in other Gulf countries, the UAE announced an increase of up to 100% in the pay of some public sector workers, as well as the introduction of a $2.7 billion fund to help low... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political tensions in Kuwait could accelerate reforms On the face of it, the resignation of the Kuwaiti government adds to the general sense that political risks in the Arab world are escalating once again. However, given that Kuwait is much wealthier... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rate hike: another by-product of the unrest Today’s rate hike by 100 bps to 9.25% is a clear sign that Egypt’s central bank is increasingly concerned over growing balance of payments strains and the risk of a currency crisis. Although the... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt election concerns add to already high financing risks The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE banks better placed to weather a fresh global crisis The UAE’s banks are better prepared to face the fallout of the euro-zone debt crisis than they were during the financial crisis of 2008. However, lending to the private sector is unlikely to return to... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Raising deposit rates is not enough to support the Egyptian pound The decision by privately-owned banks in Egypt to raise deposit rates by around two percentage points may slow the rate of dollarization of resident accounts, which could help the central bank in its... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sanctions threaten double-digit drop in Syrian GDP The Arab League’s decision to suspend Syria’s membership paves the way for harsher economic and political sanctions that should weaken President Bashar Al-Assad’s leadership. Admittedly, Iraq, Yemen... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Inflation collapsing but no room for near-term rate cuts Although Egyptian inflation fell to its slowest rate for 4 years in October, currency concerns continue to prevent a near-term cut in interest rates. Indeed, if there is any rate change before the end... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: living on borrowed time We estimate that the Central Bank of Egypt has sufficient FX reserves to maintain its current rate of intervention in the foreign exchange markets until early next year. Assuming this month’s... 8th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Employment schemes in the GCC: silver bullet or damp squib? The recent moves by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to increase the participation of their citizens in the private sector jobs market, notably Saudi Arabia’s Nitiqat scheme, are... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar hedges its bets With oil prices likely to fall further next year, the Qatari authorities’ decision to hedge part of their 2012 oil exports looks wise. While the government’s balance sheet is amongst the healthiest in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's election results should not worry investors The fact that the moderate Islamic party, Al-Nahda, is on track to become the strongest political force in Tunisia should not be a concern for Western governments or international investors. From the... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update After Gaddafi, what next for the ‘Arab Spring’? The fact that there was no market reaction to the death of Libya’s former leader, Muammar Gaddafi, is no surprise. That said, today’s events could reduce political risks in the Middle East and North... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates could be cut next year There were no surprises from Egypt’s Central Bank today as the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 8.25%. Although the economy is still weak, and core inflation in single digits, the threat... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resource-poor countries most at risk from a global crisis The global economic crisis will affect the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region through a deterioration in world trade, falls in commodity prices and a drop in capital inflows. We expect that... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read