Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2) The larger-than-expected 1.0% q/q contraction in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 is likely to be followed by further weakness over the coming quarters. We expect this to prompt BanRep to join other central banks... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Argentina Devaluation and Interest Rate Hike The news just out that Argentina has devalued the peso by around 20% against the dollar (to 350/$) and hiked the policy interest rate by 21%-pts to 118% underscores that the economy is lurching... 14th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to a slightly higher-than-expected 4.0% last month won’t stop Copom from lowering interest rates at its September meeting. By the same token, however, the figure... 11th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back in July, to 4.8% y/y, but with services inflation proving to be sticky, we doubt that Banxico will turn to interest rate cuts until the turn of... 9th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (June 2023) The slightly better-than-expected 0.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in June indicates that the sector grew a little more quickly in Q2 than it did in Q1. Even so, there’s nothing in... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) The 0.9% q/q rise in Mexican GDP last quarter followed a strong Q1 and showed that Mexico’s economy was more resilient in the first half of the year than we’d expected. That said, we think that weaker... 31st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2023) The Brazilian July mid-month inflation reading of 3.2% y/y suggests that price pressures are weaker than we and most others had thought. While we still think it’s most likely that the central bank... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate eased further in the first half of July but the fresh rise in services inflation will be a concern for Banxico officials. The tightening cycle is unlikely to be... 24th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in May means that the sector has now reversed all of the decline in output recorded in March. And more timely indicators point... 12th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (June 2023) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.2% y/y last month makes it almost certain that the central bank will kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting on 2nd August. We have pencilled in a... 11th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The larger-than-expected decline in inflation in Chile to an 18-month low of 7.6% in June seals the deal on an interest cut at the central bank’s next meeting later this month. If anything... 7th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (May 2023) The weaker-than-expected 0.3% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in May only partly reverses April’s 0.6% m/m decline and suggests that industry remained weak over the course of the second... 4th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2023) & Copom Minutes The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 3.4% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with the surprisingly dovish tilt on Copom shown in the minutes to the last meeting, have prompted us to... 27th June 2023 · 2 mins read
