Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2024)

The Brazilian central bank’s 50bp cut in the Selic rate to 10.75% today was never in doubt, but the change in the forward guidance supports our view that the easing cycle will slow to 25bp cuts soon...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q4 2023)

The 0.1% q/q rise in Chilean GDP confirms that the economy had a stop-start recovery over the course of last year, but we think that it will make more solid gains over the course of 2024. Our growth...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (February 2024)

The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting...

7th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q4 2023)

The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2024)

The breakdown of Brazil’s February mid-month inflation reading of 4.5% y/y showed that core services inflation remained elevated. And while further 50bp cuts in the Selic rate next month (to 10.75%)...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q4 2023)

The stagnation in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy remained very weak at the end of last year and we think the recovery this year will be slower than most anticipate. At the margin, the...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.)

Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next meeting in March...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024)

The jump in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.9% in January means Banxico won’t feel comfortable enough yet to start an easing cycle at the Board meeting later today. Elsewhere, the further fall...

8th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q4 Provisional)

The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mexico’s GDP growth, to just 0.1% q/q in Q4, is likely to be followed by continued sluggish growth over the coming quarters. At the margin, the data increase the...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024)

The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.)

The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the...

24th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (December 2023)

The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next meeting at the end of the...

11th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.7% y/y in December was mainly due to higher non-core inflation but, even so, the odds of Banxico beginning an easing cycle at its...

9th January 2024 · 3 mins read