Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (November 2023) The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in the full-month outturn – the central bank is on course to lower the Selic rate by... 28th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is running out of steam. And while Banxico opened the door to the start of a monetary easing... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q3 2023) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP growth in 2024-25. 20th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2023) The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, suggests that growth over the year as a whole will... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (October 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very modest hint... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to the... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2023) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for October, of 5.0% y/y, confirms that the recent rise in inflation has now passed its peak and paves the way for another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.25... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to a 31-month low of 4.3% y/y in the first half of October masked a worrying pick-up in services inflation. This, combined with rapid wage growth and... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a modest 0.3% m/m rise in output in August as another jump in construction output more than offset renewed weakness in manufacturing. But more timely indicators... 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (September 2023) The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.2% y/y probably marks the peak in this mini-inflation cycle and the headline rate should fall back again in the coming months, allowing the central bank to... 11th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (August 2023) The 0.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in August failed to fully offset the decline in July and suggests that the sector was as a drag on growth in Q3. Services sectors are faring better... 3rd October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) Mexico’s central bank, as widely expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement remained very hawkish. We think Banxico will be the last... 28th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 & Copom Minutes (September 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 5.0% y/y in the first half of September, taken together with the more cautious tone of the minutes to last week’s central bank meeting, supports our view that the... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read