Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Mexico’s central bank opted to reduce its policy rate by 25bp, to 10.75%, at today’s meeting and the statement generally retained the moderately dovish tone from the last one. We think further rate... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y in July, alongside the weakness in the peso means that Banxico’s interest rate decision later today will be a very close call between a cut... 8th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2024) Rising inflation, a worsening fiscal position and a slump in the real prompted Brazil’s central bank to leave the Selic rate at 10.50% today and strike a more hawkish tone in the accompanying... 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Provisional) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q2 means that Banxico is likely to resume its easing cycle at next week’s Board meeting with a 25bp cut to 10.75%. 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, 4.45% y/y in the first half of July, was mainly driven by a pick-up in underlying core services inflation. This, coming alongside... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of July, to 5.6% y/y, was driven entirely by a jump in non-core inflation; core inflation fell. Our base case remains that Banxico... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Mexico’s central bank left rates unchanged at 11.00% today, but there was a surprising dovish shift in the Board’s communications – despite the post-election fall in the peso. A small reduction in the... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least. 26th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024) The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024) The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2024) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in May and, more importantly, the re-acceleration in underlying core services inflation means we no longer expect a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 4.7% y/y in May but the continued strength of core services inflation means that it is increasingly likely that Banxico will leave... 7th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2024) The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
