Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today and there was no further tilt away from the hawkish bias in the accompanying statement. The likelihood that Banxico will begin... 14th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2023) The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision to lower the Selic rate by 50bp, to 11.75%, was slightly more dovish than the last one from November. But not enough has changed to... 13th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (November 2023) The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in November, to 4.7% y/y, makes another 50bp interest rate cut (to 11.75%) at tomorrow’s central bank meeting a certainty. But with inflation still... 12th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) Although Mexico’s headline inflation rate was weaker than expected last month (at 4.3% y/y), uncomfortably strong services inflation supports our view that Banxico’s easing cycle (likely to start... 7th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2023) Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (October 2023) The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very strong first half of the year, the economy has slowed sharply. This is likely to... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (November 2023) The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in the full-month outturn – the central bank is on course to lower the Selic rate by... 28th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Mexico’s mid-month inflation reading of 4.3% y/y in November provides signs that the disinflation process is running out of steam. And while Banxico opened the door to the start of a monetary easing... 23rd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q3 2023) The 0.3% q/q expansion in Chile’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery is beginning to take hold. We continue to expect above-consensus GDP growth in 2024-25. 20th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2023) The softer-than-expected 0.2% q/q rise in Colombian GDP in Q3, coming alongside signs that the economy was weakening towards the end of the quarter, suggests that growth over the year as a whole will... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (October 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) Mexico’s central bank sprung no surprises and left its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting and the accompanying statement retained its hawkish bias. That said, there was a very modest hint... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate dropped to a 32-month low of 4.3% y/y in October, but the fresh rise in services inflation will alarm officials at Banxico. We doubt this will prompt a restart to the... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) Mexico’s economy posted solid growth of 0.9% q/q in Q3, but we still think a slowdown is on the cards over the coming quarters as tight monetary policy takes a heavier toll and weaker growth in the US... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2023) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for October, of 5.0% y/y, confirms that the recent rise in inflation has now passed its peak and paves the way for another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.25... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to a 31-month low of 4.3% y/y in the first half of October masked a worrying pick-up in services inflation. This, combined with rapid wage growth and... 24th October 2023 · 2 mins read
