Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external imbalances starting to unwind Having ballooned during the post-pandemic recovery, Colombia’s current account deficit has started to narrow and should continue to do so in the coming quarters. This, alongside the shift in financing... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: investment set to remain weak Fixed investment has been the weak spot in Colombia’s strong post-pandemic recovery and it is likely to remain subdued over the next couple of years due to a combination of the fragile political... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of LatAm equities may be set to end Equities in Latin America have generally returned more than those in the rest of the world so far this year for US dollar-based investors willing to shoulder the currency risk. We think that is set to... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Dominican Republic’s economy set for a slowdown The Dominican Republic recorded an impressive post-pandemic recovery, but we think that a combination of a fading boost from tourism, weakness in the US and tight fiscal policy will cause growth to... 21st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What happens after EM currency crises? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in more than 80% of cases in the... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s PASO brings shock therapy a step closer The surprisingly strong showing for far-right self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” Javier Milei in Argentina’s primary elections (known as the PASO) suggests that there is popular appetite for a shock... 14th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: comparisons with 2001/02 There are some unnerving similarities between Argentina’s current situation and that which preceded the 2001/02 crisis, including twin deficits, an overvalued exchange rate, and large external FX... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? Recently-announced measures by Argentina’s government are merely stopgap solutions and appear to be aimed at staving off a disorderly devaluation ahead of upcoming elections rather than stabilising... 26th July 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update The Mexican “super peso” looks poised for a sharp fall The Mexican peso’s relentless rise against the US dollar and most other major currencies is increasingly at odds with macroeconomic fundamentals. We think the peso is vulnerable to an abrupt fall over... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is a stronger peso harming Mexico’s economy? Mexico’s exports have fared well recently and the current account deficit remains small. But a closer look suggests that the strength of the peso is causing dynamics in the balance of payments to... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentina’s primary election The latest polls ahead of next month’s primaries in Argentina suggest that the country could buck the regional trend by electing a more market-friendly government. In this Update we assess the... 19th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the Brazilian real’s rally will reverse soon We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. We are also sending this FX... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s export boom likely to fade The surge in Brazil’s exports since the start of the pandemic has helped the economy recover more quickly than we and most others had anticipated. And unlike previous spikes in exports, some of the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom lines up September rate cut The somewhat cautious tone of the statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%) will disappoint those hoping for an interest rate cut... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
