Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom casts doubt on 2023 rate cuts The statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting, at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%, hinted that interest rates may need to stay at their current high level into next... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: end of tightening cycle approaching The minutes to the Colombian central bank meeting last Friday revealed that worries about the growth outlook will bring the tightening cycle to a close soon. We expect the central bank to deliver one... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s re-opening means for Latin America China’s rapid move away from zero-Covid and the resulting rally in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, but we remain of the view that 2023 will be a challenging year for Latin... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the riots in Brasília The implications of the invasion of Brazil’s congress by protestors yesterday are mainly political. But the riots could result in a long-lasting risk premium on the country’s financial assets... 9th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Policy paralysis here to stay in Peru The impeachment of Peru’s controversial (former) left-wing President Pedro Castillo might bring short-term relief to investors, but it does not solve Peru’s governability issues. With policy paralysis... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal risks could keep rates higher for longer The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%, made clear that policymakers are increasingly concerned about fiscal loosening... 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s fiscal plans intensify Brazil’s public debt risks President-elect Lula’s plans to increase spending could raise Brazil’s public debt ratio by an additional 10% of GDP by the end of his presidential term in 2026. And while it seems likely that these... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Global recession adds to headwinds facing Lat Am With the global economy headed for recession and commodity prices likely to come off their recent highs, Latin American exports will struggle over the coming quarters. Weakening global growth is also... 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Petro’s first 100 days in office While Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro initially made a promising start to his tenure, his recent interventionist comments have led to a sharp sell-off in local financial markets. Regaining... 14th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s current account deficit to widen Mexico’s current account deficit is likely to widen over the coming quarters and, while it will remain modest compared with other parts of Latin America, we expect the peso to come under pressure. 7th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s current account deficit a growing risk Colombia’s current account deficit has, somewhat surprisingly, widened this year despite the boost to the country’s terms of trade from high oil prices, and now stands at an alarming level. And the... 1st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to watch after Lula’s victory The narrow victory for Lula in the second-round of Brazil’s presidential election yesterday has, so far, thankfully not been contested by Bolsonaro. But there’s still likely to be a negative reaction... 31st October 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom: staying hawkish despite inflation plunge The hawkish language in the statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision late yesterday, at which it left the Selic rate at 13.75%, reinforces our view that the sharp fall in inflation... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Deforestation a key issue in Brazil’s election Environmental policy is one channel through which Brazil’s presidential election has global implications. The country is the single largest source of deforestation in the world and, with deforestation... 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
