Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal framework already on the rocks Media reports that Brazil’s government is already seeking to water down the latest fiscal rule (which has been in place for less than a year) reinforces the point we made when the rule was first... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has... 3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s external rebalancing: less than meets the eye The sharp narrowing in Colombia’s current account deficit last year to its lowest level since the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis looks encouraging, but it was entirely a result of the... 4th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Amlo leaving public finances on a slippery slope Mexico’s President López Obrador’s cloak of fiscal prudence is being shed this year as Morena tries to bolster its support ahead of June’s election. As some of the factors supportive of the public... 27th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: inflation pressures starting to re-surface Headline inflation in Brazil has declined in recent months, but a deeper dig into the data shows that underlying price pressures are starting to build again. Although another 50bp cut in the Selic... 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Milei’s shock therapy hits congressional reality Argentine President Javier Milei’s ambitious economic reform plans have quickly run into political obstacles. There’s still plenty of fiscal tightening that Milei is likely to undertake and there have... 15th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank left interest rates unchanged at 11.25% again today but the accompanying statement further opened the door to the start of an easing cycle, probably at the next meeting in March... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: a return to fiscal malaise The large rise in the Brazilian government’s budget deficit, to 8.9% of GDP, over 2023 as a whole should partially reverse this year. But the key point is that the underlying sovereign debt dynamics... 7th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Mexican inflation and Banxico? Inflation in Mexico has dropped back over the past year but rapid wage growth continues to fuel strong underlying price pressures and means that the headline rate won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4%... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Improved LatAm budget positions won’t stop debt rising Headline and primary budget balances across Latin America generally improved over the course of 2023 (Brazil was a key exception). But it seems unlikely that this will be sustained, and debt-to-GDP... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update LatAm currencies and equities may fare poorly this year We think that most major currencies in Latin American will fall against the US dollar this year. As a result, the relatively poor returns that we expect from equities in the region in local-currency... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update IMF endorses Milei’s plans but hurdles ahead The IMF’s approval of the next disbursement of Argentina’s current deal will provide the government with the necessary funds to make upcoming repayments (due to the Fund itself). And the fact that the... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
