Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Milei’s win brings shock therapy onto the table Javier Milei’s victory in the final round of Argentina’s presidential election yesterday will bring about a major shift in economic policymaking. We suspect that some of his more radical proposals –... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Panama protests against copper production Protests against a large copper mine have raged in Panama over the past few weeks. If mine production ceased, there would be noticeable impact on global supply but the risk of this happening is small... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will a “Dead Cow” become Argentina’s life saver? The Vaca Muerta shale formation will alleviate some of the pressure on Argentina’s fragile balance of payments position by substantially reducing the country’s gas import bill and raising oil export... 8th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Costa Rica: bright outlook amid short term headwinds Growth in Costa Rica is likely to slow by more in 2024 than officials currently expect amid weaker growth in the US, high commodity prices and tight fiscal policy. Further ahead, though, a burgeoning... 7th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB to continue to cut in 50bp steps Brazil’s central bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 12.25%, at yesterday’s Copom meeting and signalled again that further similar reductions lie in store over the next few meetings. Even so... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update The Chilean peso likely to break its spell of underperformance We think the Chilean peso is poised for a rebound in 2024 as the headwinds from the narrowing interest rate differential and the terms of trade deterioration reverse. 26th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: más Massa? The strong showing for Peronist candidate and current Economy Minister Sergio Massa in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina means that the run-up to the second round vote in November is likely... 23rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Stakes in Argentina’s election couldn’t be higher Argentines face the choice between a shock-therapy style approach to tackling the country’s economic issues or more of the same unorthodox policymaking when they head to the polls in Sunday’s... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: raising oil output will be a long journey The reported deal that is close to being reached to lift US sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in return for competitive elections would help to raise the country’s oil output from very depressed... 16th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The bond market sell-off and the global economy The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous... 4th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind Brazil’s recent economic resilience? The drivers of Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth seem to be the subject of a heated debate at the central bank – and policymakers’ conclusions will play a big role in determining the pace and... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of a “nearshoring boom” in Mexico (yet) There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of... 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank tries to rein in rate cut bets The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today supports our view that, once the large falls in inflation are behind us in early 2024 and the economy... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
