Latin America Economics Update Is a stronger peso harming Mexico’s economy? Mexico’s exports have fared well recently and the current account deficit remains small. But a closer look suggests that the strength of the peso is causing dynamics in the balance of payments to... 20th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentina’s primary election The latest polls ahead of next month’s primaries in Argentina suggest that the country could buck the regional trend by electing a more market-friendly government. In this Update we assess the... 19th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño presents mixed risks for Lat Am The likelihood of an El Niño event over the second half of the year raises the risk that activity is disrupted, inflation falls more slowly than we currently expect, and central banks’ monetary easing... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the Brazilian real’s rally will reverse soon We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. We are also sending this FX... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s export boom likely to fade The surge in Brazil’s exports since the start of the pandemic has helped the economy recover more quickly than we and most others had anticipated. And unlike previous spikes in exports, some of the... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom lines up September rate cut The somewhat cautious tone of the statement accompanying yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 13.75%) will disappoint those hoping for an interest rate cut... 22nd June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank paves the way for July rate cut The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting have reinforced our view that the easing cycle will commence in July. We... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strong wage growth to temper falls in inflation and rates The tightening of labour markets across Latin America in the past year or so has fuelled rapid wage growth in many economies and wage growth is likely to remain uncomfortably high for a while yet... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market strength likely to worry Copom The latest data suggest that Brazil’s labour market isn’t softening as quickly as we and many others (not least the central bank) had anticipated. That’s keeping wage growth high and, while that may... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s imbalanced recovery can’t be sustained Colombia’s very strong post-pandemic recovery has come at the expense of a build-up of large macroeconomic imbalances and a period of below-trend growth is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico to keep rates high for longer than most expect Mexico’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting, bringing the tightening cycle to an end. But with inflation unlikely to return to target until late-2024, policy will... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Best of Mexico’s recovery now over Mexico’s economy has put in a decent performance over the past year or so, but we think that most of the factors that have supported robust growth have now run their course. Tight policy and a looming... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong start to the year unlikely to be sustained The stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data from Colombia suggest that the risks to our forecast for the economy to expand by 0.8% over 2023 as a whole are skewed to the upside. That said, there were signs... 16th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador: political turmoil brings default risks back The looming impeachment trial of Ecuador’s president Guillermo Lasso marks a further intensification of the country’s political crisis and suggests that the recent experiment with market-friendly... 10th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
