Europe Economics Update Market moves could destabilise the euro-zone periphery Recent market movements point to a downturn in euro-zone growth, particularly in the periphery. The ECB is likely to respond by loosening monetary policy, but it cannot solve all of the euro-zone’s... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update After Brexit, will Quitaly be next? Italian opposition to the EU is strong and several forces could cause that hostility to grow. October’s constitutional reform referendum will provide voters with an opportunity to oust the prime... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit vote weakens outlook for euro-zone growth While the UK’s vote for Brexit will have only a small direct effect on euro-zone trade this year and next, the indirect effects on confidence and financial markets may be more serious. We have... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s new government set to be a fragile one Despite unexpected gains for the right in Spain, an anti-austerity left-wing coalition may now be more likely than opinion polls had suggested. Either way, the new government will be a very fragile... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth remains fairly slow. While the ECB has since introduced new stimulus measures, including its latest TLTROs, we doubt that they will boost... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which country might be next to hold an EU referendum? The UK’s vote to leave the EU has been followed by calls for referendums in other countries. And, notably, euro-scepticism in some countries seems to be even stronger than in the UK. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK’s vote to leave EU raises doubts over future of Europe The UK’s vote to leave the European Union will have substantial negative effects on the European economy and raises serious doubts over the future of both the EU itself and the currency union. 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to cut interest rates in September The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged today, but with the economy weak and inflation set to fall, we think that further loosening is on the way. 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Brexit trigger the ECB’s OMTs? Today’s ruling by the German constitutional court leaves the ECB free to implement its long-awaited OMT programme, if deemed necessary. And a possible trigger for OMTs – Brexit – might be just a few... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery? Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery? Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. 17th June 2016 · 1 min read