Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Recent data have brought further signs that public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery are improving. But January saw the sharpest monthly rises in bond yields since mid-2015, probably caused by... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Germany address its “grossly undervalued” currency? The accusation by US policymakers that Germany’s currency is “grossly undervalued” is partly justified. Indeed, while the euro’s current low level seems warranted by economic fundamentals in the... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies make a strong start to the year The Nordic and Swiss currencies have generally strengthened this month, albeit for different reasons. This is a trend that we expect to continue this year. 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election pits liberalism against protectionism Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage... 30th January 2017 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying is Italy’s widening Target2 deficit? Italy’s widening Target2 imbalance suggests that investors are reducing their exposure to Italy. And capital outflows may well rise in the run-up to a general election, which could happen this year. 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is political uncertainty taking a toll on the Dutch economy? The tightening of credit standards in the Netherlands suggests that political uncertainty may be having an impact on economic conditions. The chance of eurosceptics gaining power is limited and the... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sees sustained rise in inflation as a distant prospect President Draghi explained today that the ECB saw the recent rise in inflation as transient and outlined some tough conditions for future policy normalisation which are unlikely to be met for a very... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bond yields to climb further as ECB nears limits Portuguese government bonds rallied last week, but we doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, we think that concerns about the sovereign credit rating and falling ECB asset purchases will push... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Next Riksbank move will be to tighten monetary policy Today’s minutes confirmed that only half of the Riksbank’s Executive Board supported the extension of its QE programme. And with inflation surpassing expectations in December, there is little cause... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone government bond spreads balloon in 2017? We expect euro-zone government bond spreads to reach multi-year highs in 2017, with the largest increases in Italy and France, due to rising doubts about their futures in the currency union. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies depreciating against US dollar Following a host of central bank meetings last month, most of the Swiss and Nordic currencies fell against the US dollar. While there were few major changes for bond yields, equities in most countries... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
