Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How worrying is Italy’s widening Target2 deficit? Italy’s widening Target2 imbalance suggests that investors are reducing their exposure to Italy. And capital outflows may well rise in the run-up to a general election, which could happen this year. 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is political uncertainty taking a toll on the Dutch economy? The tightening of credit standards in the Netherlands suggests that political uncertainty may be having an impact on economic conditions. The chance of eurosceptics gaining power is limited and the... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB sees sustained rise in inflation as a distant prospect President Draghi explained today that the ECB saw the recent rise in inflation as transient and outlined some tough conditions for future policy normalisation which are unlikely to be met for a very... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bond yields to climb further as ECB nears limits Portuguese government bonds rallied last week, but we doubt that this will continue. Sooner or later, we think that concerns about the sovereign credit rating and falling ECB asset purchases will push... 16th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Next Riksbank move will be to tighten monetary policy Today’s minutes confirmed that only half of the Riksbank’s Executive Board supported the extension of its QE programme. And with inflation surpassing expectations in December, there is little cause... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone government bond spreads balloon in 2017? We expect euro-zone government bond spreads to reach multi-year highs in 2017, with the largest increases in Italy and France, due to rising doubts about their futures in the currency union. 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currencies depreciating against US dollar Following a host of central bank meetings last month, most of the Swiss and Nordic currencies fell against the US dollar. While there were few major changes for bond yields, equities in most countries... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Discord among Riksbank board points to end of loosening While the Riksbank extended QE today, a number of the Executive Board dissented, suggesting that today’s announcement marks the beginning of the end for policy loosening in Sweden. Indeed, despite its... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Nexit is not next, but Dutch voters still pose threat to EU There is little chance of March’s Dutch general election resulting in a referendum on EU membership. But the shift in political sentiment towards euroscepticism may derail EU policymaking in other... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rising UK trade surplus another risk for the euro-zone The euro-zone’s trade surplus with the UK is likely to fall as a result of sterling’s depreciation. We think that this will reduce euro-zone GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage points per year in 2017... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weak inflation to prompt Norges Bank rate cut in 2017 The Norges Bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged came despite a deterioration in the outlook for growth and inflation. While policymakers remain concerned about the impact of loose... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s ultra-loose policy won’t stop franc rising against euro The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention was as expected. The Bank may have drawn some comfort from the franc’s recent decline... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
