Europe Economics Update Will France’s economy help Macron or Le Pen? We think that the French economy is in better shape than data released this week suggest. On balance, its underlying health should boost support for the centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with subdued core inflation. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June Given the shift in Mr Draghi’s language at today’s press conference, we think that in June the ECB will remove the reference to “lower” interest rates from its forward guidance. While this would end... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank dissenters fail to prevent QE extension Only the Riksbank Governor’s casting vote secured today’s unexpected QE extension. While we have pushed back our expectation for the first repo rate rise in Sweden, we still think that the Riksbank... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron can’t rely on National Assembly support for reforms Even if centrist Emmanuel Macron wins the second round of the presidential election, his En Marche! party almost certainly won’t secure a majority in the National Assembly following June’s legislative... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron-Le Pen run-off raises hopes for French revival The opinion polls were right for once and a strong showing for centrist liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron in the first round of the French election has raised hopes of growth-boosting labour market... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Marine Le Pen’s margin of defeat make a difference? Assuming that Marine Le Pen loses in the second round of the French presidential election, her most radical eurosceptic and protectionist policies will gain little traction at home over the next five... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy? Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sharp currency depreciations in Norway and Iceland Market movements across the Nordic and Swiss economies were fairly limited in March. The main exceptions were in the currency market, with both the Norwegian krone and Icelandic króna recording sharp... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery? There are some positive signs for Portugal’s banks, suggesting that they have become less of a risk to the public finances. But a meaningful recovery in lending over the next few years seems unlikely... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Divergent outlook for monetary policy in Sweden and Norway Underlying Swedish inflation is set to pick up further and means that the Riksbank’s ultra-loose policy is no longer justified. Conversely, the outlook for Norwegian inflation calls for an interest... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish growth to slow regardless of politics Spain’s political situation is fragile and we cannot rule out a snap election being called this year. But regardless of the politics, deteriorating economic fundamentals mean that economic growth will... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation still set to dampen real spending growth this year The annual rate of euro-zone inflation may be nearing a peak, but its effects on consumer spending growth have yet to come. With nominal wage gains unlikely to offset higher prices, we still see... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
