Europe Economics Update Can Europe keep the lights on? The extraordinary rise in European gas prices in recent weeks has raised the possibility that, as a last resort, European governments may need to ration the supply of electricity to businesses or... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update What to make of Sweden’s August GDP shocker? The eye-watering decline in Swedish GDP in August suggests that supply shortages and weakening global growth will continue to take the shine off the impressive rebound in the Swedish economy in late... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Changing HICP weights add to inflation uncertainty Changes to the weights applied to the goods and services in the inflation basket pushed inflation up in January, but since April the new weights have kept the headline rate lower than it would... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households’ excess savings continue to build Households continued to accumulate “excess” savings in Q2 this year, with those held as cash and bank deposits equivalent to about 4% of GDP. We do not expect all of this to be spent, but some of it... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further Nationalbank rate cuts not out of the question While the announcement of a 10bp interest rate cut by Denmark’s Nationalbank this afternoon seemingly goes against the grain of the recent hawkish shifts by the US Fed and Bank of England, it is the... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years The ECB is likely to argue that the increase in inflation to above its 2% target is “transient” even if it continues for much longer than currently expected. The key question is not how long inflation... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk of euro-zone labour market “cliff edge” very low Euro-zone governments’ reduction in support for jobs will not cause unemployment in the region to jump, since there are now relatively few workers benefiting, and hiring activity is strong. But... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising up our euro-zone inflation forecasts As a result of the increase in gas prices, we now think that euro-zone headline inflation will soon hit 4% and that it will average 2% in 2022. But headline and core inflation still look set to fall... 28th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update No major policy shift likely following German election With the CDU/CSU and SDP having won very similar shares of the vote, the composition of Germany’s next government still hangs in the balance. An SDP-led coalition would probably pursue a slightly less... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers about Germany’s election The federal election in Germany on Sunday will result in a new chancellor for the first time since 2005 and opinion polls suggest that the result will be extremely close with potentially months of... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors underestimating pace of Norges Bank hikes This morning’s policy decision double-header played out as planned, with the Swiss National Bank maintaining the status quo and the Norges Bank finally pulling the trigger on its tightening cycle. But... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update “QT” creeping up the agenda in Sweden The Riksbank stuck firmly to “Plan A” this morning by maintaining the status quo for the repo rate and its asset purchase programme. However, the slight tweak to the Bank’s language on the outlook for... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland and Nordics to sidestep gas price woes The low use of gas, and a reliance on nuclear and renewables for electricity generation, means that Switzerland and the Nordics are less exposed to the recent surge in gas prices than other parts of... 20th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising gas prices will hit Spain hardest The upward pressure on euro-zone headline inflation from the surge in natural gas prices will not be felt evenly throughout the region, with Spain looking most vulnerable. Governments are stepping in... 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation impact of high gas prices will last into 2022 The recent surge in the prices of natural gas and coal, and therefore electricity too, has boosted energy inflation and suggests the risks to our near-term forecast for headline inflation lie to the... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB slows purchases but keeps policy ultra-loose The ECB today confirmed that it will slow its asset purchases slightly but this is a long way from a “full taper”. We think inflation will drop even further than the ECB expects over the medium term... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
