Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage pressures will prove limited There are some signs of labour shortages developing in parts of the euro-zone, notably in hospitality. But they are likely to be short-lived and will not put sustained upward pressure on wages. And... 3rd June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Switzerland waves Auf Wiederloge to a new EU Treaty While the breakdown in Treaty talks between Switzerland and the EU makes the outlook for Swiss exporters more uncertain, we doubt that the lasting economic impact will be very big. 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy Recovery Plan: Bidenomics or Marshall Plan 2.0? Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan could provide a significant boost to aggregate demand in the coming years. And arguably even more important are the accompanying structural reforms, which could... 26th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro-zone see a US-style jump in inflation? Euro-zone inflation is likely to keep increasing as the economy re-opens, but we doubt it will rise as high as in the US. That’s because base effects will be smaller and the rebound in consumer... 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Slow start to jab rollout may come back to bite Europe While the vaccine rollout in Europe has finally kicked into gear, the legacy of the slow start means the EU is more exposed than the UK or the US if the Indian variant spreads quickly amongst the... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t go as far as Fed with average inflation aim Following its strategic review, we think the ECB will set its formal definition of price stability as an inflation rate of 2%. But it might also adjust its forward guidance to signal some tolerance... 11th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Interest rate lift-off edging nearer in Norway As expected, the Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold at a record low of zero once again this morning but remains on track to be the first advanced central bank to start to raise interest rates... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The slowdown in money growth in March in year-on-year terms was largely due to base effects. It was still in the double digits and should remain strong over the rest of this year at least. But with... 29th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to put more emphasis on house prices in future The ECB is likely as part of the strategic review to place more emphasis on housing costs and may initiate the creation of a parallel price index that includes them, but it will not change the... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big an impact will Next Generation EU have? Next Generation EU has the potential to provide a significant stimulus to the economy over the next six years. But the impact on GDP might be smaller than most expect, while the impact on long-run... 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Economic optimism won’t translate into policy action The decision by the Riksbank to leave the repo rate and its other policy settings unchanged today will have come as a surprise to no one. While policymakers are increasingly optimistic about the near... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t be micro-managing the bond market In today’s ECB press conference, Christine Lagarde did not seem fazed by the recent rise in bond yields or the evidence of tighter bank lending conditions. But we suspect that policymakers will push... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to keep wage pressures in check The amount of slack in the euro-zone’s labour market diminished slightly at the end of last year. But crucially, it remained higher than it was in 2019 and it is unlikely to have fallen much further... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weaker franc to further ease US-Swiss relations The fact that the US Treasury refrained from calling Switzerland a currency manipulator in its latest report lowers the temperature in US-Swiss relations but doesn’t change the policy equation for the... 19th April 2021 · 4 mins read
