Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to stay ahead of the Fed as SNB holds pat While the Swiss National Bank maintained the status quo once again this morning (yawn), the Norges Bank continued its tightening cycle, as expected, and opened the door to another rate hike in March... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key areas of Omicron uncertainty Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron: implications for the euro-zone It is still very early days in assessing the effects of the latest Covid variant, but we suspect that Omicron has the capacity to cause a new decline in economic activity in the coming months but that... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update PEPP not guaranteed to end in March The account of October’s ECB meeting suggests that it is by no means guaranteed that net PEPP purchases will end in March. And even if they do, the Bank may well leave open the possibility of re... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank injects a dash of hawkishness In comparison to the chaotic scenes in the Riksdag yesterday, the Riksbank’s November meeting was a more sedate affair. While the Bank is in no rush to raise the repo rate, the insertion of a rate... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q4 outlook darkens as tighter restrictions loom Germany’s worsening Covid situation means much of the country could be subject to much tighter restrictions soon, potentially knocking around 0.25%-pts off euro-zone Q4 GDP. Even if other countries... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New Covid restrictions another headwind Several euro-zone governments have tightened coronavirus rules lately and more measures are on the cards, including in Germany. On the whole, these are set to be less severe than they were earlier... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage indexation won’t drive second round effects The current bout of high inflation will put much less direct upward pressure on negotiated wages in the euro-zone than in previous such episodes. This is because far fewer agreements now contain... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spanish inflation surge another headwind to recovery The jump in headline inflation in Spain in October was almost entirely down to the electricity component. We do not expect this bout of higher inflation to last, but in the meantime, consumers are... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Effect of shortages on activity and inflation will persist There is growing evidence that global goods shortages are weighing on euro-zone activity. We expect this to contribute to a marked slowdown in growth in Q4, and the outlook for early 2022 is no better... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s recovery held back by tourism and consumers Spain is a long way behind its euro-zone neighbours in recovering from the pandemic. That is partly because its important tourism sector has been hamstrung by travel restrictions but it also reflects... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
