Europe Economics Yet another blow to Europe’s vaccine rollout The delayed start to deliveries of the J&J vaccine is yet another blow to the rollout in continental Europe and on its own could delay things by at least one month compared to a situation in which the... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households still accumulating excess savings We estimate that households accumulated “excess” savings of around 4.4% of GDP last year. But they are unlikely to spend this cash any time soon, so it will probably not do much to boost the recovery. 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in ECB QE underwhelming so far The account of March’s ECB meeting showed that the decision to increase asset purchases was agreed by all members, but that some were reluctant to do much more. In practice, purchases haven’t risen... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Easing in Denmark is the exception, not the rule The comparative success that the Danish government has had in handling COVID has allowed it to start to re-open the economy, despite the painfully slow progress on the vaccine front. Most economies in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Government troubles raise stakes in German election The broad consensus among Germany’s major parties means that September’s election will not lead to big macroeconomic policy changes. But with the Greens and/or SDP set to gain influence, fiscal policy... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will remain higher in Germany Inflation looks set to rise further in Germany than in most other euro-zone economies this year and we suspect that it will remain higher there after the pandemic is over. However, we doubt that this... 31st March 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The good ship SNB set to maintain its course This morning’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to keep its policy settings unchanged came as no surprise. The prospect of further falls in the franc should allow the Bank to largely stay out of... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual rate of money and lending growth remained strong in February, and with the ECB likely to make significant asset purchases throughout this year and next, money growth will remain well above... 25th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery postponed again We are revising down our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth due to the resurgence of virus cases, slow pace of vaccination and extension of lockdowns. The recovery is likely to be delayed until the... 24th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics ‘Export ban’ won’t solve the EU’s vaccine woes The EU’s tougher stance on vaccine exports might help to secure some concessions and additional doses from the UK. But it will do nothing to combat vaccine hesitancy in parts of the bloc and is... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greece: easing no game changer, yet The easing of virus restrictions in Greece this week – despite rising case numbers – is unlikely to change the picture for Q1; the economy probably contracted. Moreover, if it leads to a faster spread... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update New lockdown weighs on France’s recovery Tighter restrictions for large parts of France for at least the next month are likely to reduce activity by only a further 1.5% or so. But the economy was already operating some 5% below its pre-virus... 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to remain subdued Even as inflation picks up this year, additional labour market slack, weak past inflation and a focus on jobs protection at the expense of pay increases all mean that euro-zone wage growth will remain... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank gearing up to hike As we expected, the Norges Bank laid the groundwork this morning for the start of a tightening cycle, later this year. But we think it will raise interest rates sooner and faster than it currently... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will be more relaxed about inflation over 2% We suspect that the ECB will be more tolerant of inflation in the future than it has been in the past. In particular, it is likely to look through a short period of above-target inflation this year... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
