Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight drop in core inflation in November further decreases the chances of the Riksbank raising rates next week. Nonetheless, we still expect the first hike in February as underlying inflation is... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Nov.) November’s unexpectedly-sharp rise in inflation in Norway is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s mind about leaving policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting. The Bank is likely to raise interest rates... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The breakdown of euro-zone Q3 GDP suggests that the slowdown was down to more than just disruption to car production. Nevertheless, for now we still think that quarterly growth will probably pick up a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production data for Germany and France add to the evidence that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to bounce back strongly after Q3’s slowdown in GDP growth. 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final PMIs (Nov.) November’s final euro-zone PMIs suggested that the weakness of GDP growth in Q3 was more than just a blip. But October’s rise in retail sales provides some comfort and we expect consumer spending... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Private Production (Oct.) Sweden’s private sector production data for October suggest that the economy bounced back after Q3’s contraction. This reduces the risk of the Riksbank delaying its first rate hike beyond February. 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Nov.) November’s falls in headline and core inflation highlight the lack of price pressures in Switzerland. And with GDP growth also weak, the SNB looks set to keep policy looser for longer than investors... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Norway in November offers hope that the weakness of economic activity in Q3 was not the start of a deeper downturn. But since the surveys... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q3, Breakdown) The second estimate of Italy’s GDP in Q3 showed that the economy performed even worse than previously thought. And while we know that temporary disruption in the car industry weighed on the economy in... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) We doubt that November’s decline in euro-zone inflation will cause the ECB to alter its plans for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, with asset purchases set to end next month. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Nov.), Finnish & Danish GDP (Q3) November’s fall in the KOF Economic Barometer adds to the evidence that Swiss growth has shifted down a gear. And with inflation weak, we expect the SNB to keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2020. 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Business & Consumer Survey (Nov.) November’s modest decline in the EC’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) left it consistent with solid GDP growth which will encourage the ECB to end its asset purchases next month as... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish & Swiss GDP (Q3) The very weak Swiss Q3 GDP data make us more confident that the SNB will keep monetary policy ultra-loose longer than investors expect. Meanwhile, the contraction in the Swedish economy in Q3 suggests... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to evidence that the German economy is slowing, but suggests that the particular weakness of Q3 will not be repeated at the end of the... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the Composite PMI raises doubts about whether the economy will rebound after a weak Q3. This won’t be enough to stop the ECB from ending its asset purchases next month, but it... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), IP (Sep.) & Employment (Q3) Q3’s slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth partly reflected temporary factors, so we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better in the coming quarters. This would allow the ECB to push ahead... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
