Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Policy Rate Decision (May) Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 1.00% is just a brief pause in its tightening cycle, with another hike now almost certain in June. With core inflation set to... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Mar.) The increase in industrial production in March is not as a good as it looks at first sight, not least because it was largely due to another increase in construction activity. Moreover, the business... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Apr.) The jump in the euro-zone’s core inflation rate in April was largely due to Easter timing effects, and is likely to be reversed in May. We expect the headline rate to fall below 1% towards the end of... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Apr.) This morning’s release of inflation data from Switzerland for April yielded no surprises and showed that price pressures remain almost completely absent. We expect the headline rate to fall close to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and the Nordics for April make for grim reading and suggest that economic conditions have stayed weak at the start of the second quarter. This supports our... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Unemployment (Mar.) The first estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q1 and the labour market data for March were encouraging. But the timelier survey indicators have continued to weaken, and we expect the global economy to remain... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Apr.) The decrease in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in April leaves it consistent with subdued quarterly GDP growth this year, in line with our forecast. And we expect the franc to appreciate this year... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Apr.) April’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy got off to a slow start to Q2. So even if GDP data for Q1, published tomorrow... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Apr.) The fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index for April, which was largely due to a decline in the reading for the manufacturing sector to its lowest level since 2012, is further evidence that Germany’s... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The disappointing flash PMIs for April suggest that, despite some stronger industrial production data in the first couple of months of this year, the euro-zone is not yet out of the woods. They also... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data suggest that output in the sector performed a little better in Q1 than at the end of last year, but the sector is still struggling. And with global economic... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Swedish inflation data for March, released this morning, lend further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep policy looser for longer than it and investors expect. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) The pick-up in core inflation pressures in Norway in March suggests that the Norges Bank will stay in tightening mode for now. However, given our forecast for oil prices to fall this year, we think... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that economic growth will remain weak. This will probably encourage the ECB to make the terms of its new TLTROs – which are likely to be confirmed in June –... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Private Sector Production (Feb.) The weak private sector production data from Sweden for February suggests that the economy is likely to have flat-lined at best in Q1. With core price pressures expected to remain subdued, we continue... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data were stronger than expected and suggest that German GDP rose in Q1. But that is largely due to a sharp increase in construction, which is very unlikely to be... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
