Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Unemployment (Dec.) Q4’s GDP growth rate of 0.2% will do nothing to reassure policymakers about the outlook for this year. We think growth will be only around 1.0% in 2019, and even this would require a slight pick-up... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Jan.) The further drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in January adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy got off to a slow start to 2019. 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF & Swedish Econ. Tendency Indicator (Jan.) January’s surveys suggest that growth has slowed sharply in both Switzerland and Sweden. The SNB will see this as supporting its ultra-accommodative policy. But for the Riksbank it creates downside... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s further fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index supports other evidence that economic growth in Germany has stalled. 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The further fall in the Composite PMI for the euro-zone in January will not prompt the ECB to change its statement this afternoon. But it will heighten concerns about the severity of the slowdown and... 24th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2018) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey shows that consumers’ and firms’ demand for credit is softening, adding to the evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of GDP for 2018, and comments by the Federal Statistics Office, suggest that Germany narrowly avoided a recession last year. But this is of limited comfort: the bigger picture... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The broad-based slump in industrial production in November underlines how serious the malaise is in Europe’s industrial sector. While the euro-zone may have eked out a small increase in GDP in Q4, it... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Dec.) & Sweden Production (Nov.) December’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for Norway suggest that the Norges Bank is almost certain to follow through with its plan to raise interest rates in March. But we think it will then... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Dec. 18) & Riksbank Minutes The drop in headline inflation in Switzerland in December is a sign of things to come, as inflation is set to fall to just above zero in the coming months. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Riksbank’s... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s decline in German industrial production adds to the evidence that the euro-zone’s largest economy grew at a meagre pace in Q4. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Dec.) Data released this morning add to the evidence that economic growth in the currency union has shifted down a gear and, with underlying inflation still low, it now looks likely that the ECB will wait... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) to a twenty-seven month low adds to evidence that the slowdown in Germany is more than just a soft patch. 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI was almost entirely driven by a sharp drop in France, perhaps suggesting that the ‘gilets jaunes’ protests have had a serious economic effect. But even... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s small rise in euro-zone industrial production provides some grounds for optimism that GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q4. But the big picture is that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
