Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The upward revision to February’s final PMIs does not change our view that GDP growth in the euro-zone was probably just 0.2% again in the first quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the increase in retail... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. (Jan.19) The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.), Final Mfg PMIs (Feb.) The increase in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate, to 1.5% in February, will be of little comfort to the ECB given that it masks a small reduction in the core rate to just 1.0%. Moreover, the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The slight pick-up in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in February provides some comfort that the recent downward pressure on their industrial sectors has not intensified. However, weakness in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data released this morning show that large parts of the region ended 2018 on a high note. However, more timely indicators suggest that activity has lost momentum into 2019. Against a backdrop... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from other surveys that despite weakness in the industrial sector, the overall economy is still growing. That said, the... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index confirms that Germany’s manufacturing recession has continued this year. But GDP data released earlier today and the Markit services PMI published... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s Composite PMI provides some reassurance that the euro-zone economy as a whole is still growing. But industrial output is falling, and with the global economy slowing and trade tensions... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) The weaker-than-expected outturn for Swedish inflation in January underlines our view that the Riksbank will be in no rush to raise interest rates again. Indeed, with core inflation remaining... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) With Germany avoiding recession only by the skin of its teeth, and Italy actually in recession, the euro-zone eked out GDP growth of only 0.2% in Q4. For now we still expect growth to recover a bit... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s 0.9% fall in industrial production confirms that there was a broad-based slowdown in the euro-zone at the end of last year, which was not due to problems in just one or two sectors or... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland & Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) We think that inflation in Switzerland will fall below zero by the middle of the year, so the SNB is likely to stick to its very dovish policy stance. By contrast, we think that inflation in Norway... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q4) Norway’s economy ended 2018 on a high note, but we doubt that this will last. We suspect that lower oil prices and weaker activity elsewhere in Europe will weigh on growth, prompting the Norges Bank... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s decline in German industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy was struggling in Q4. At face value it suggests that GDP may have declined in the fourth quarter after all. 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) Retail sales figures for December were no worse than expected, and upward revisions to the data for October and November show that sales actually rose by 0.6% in Q4 as a whole. However, the final PMIs... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Mfg PMIs (Jan.) The increase in underlying inflation in the euro-zone in January is a rare piece of good news for the ECB. However, core inflation remains a long way below the ECB’s near-2% target and, given the... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
