Europe Commercial Property Update Lisbon industrial yields near a turning point Despite the Q1 surge in investment activity, we think a weak rental outlook and stretched valuations will deter a sustained increase in investment, limiting the scope for further falls in prime... 18th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak euro unlikely to push overseas investment higher We doubt the fall in the euro will lead to a material increase in overseas investment this year. Rather, we think investor demand will be underpinned by the euro-zone’s economic and property... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak job prospects limit Warsaw office rental growth As recession fears grow in Europe, we think that weak employment growth, home-working and strong completions will weigh on office rents in Warsaw. This means rental prospects will provide little... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields could rise more quickly than expected Our updated yield model points to a quicker rise in property yields than our forecast suggests. While we still expect the correction to be mild, not least because of the lower share of property debt... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rent growth to slow, but quality gap could arise Both our view and that of the IPF Consensus is that prime office rental growth will slow as hybrid working shifts take their toll. However, we also think it is likely that a quality gap will emerge... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do recession risks threaten euro-zone rental growth? The risks of a recession in the euro-zone have risen. While we think a contraction will be narrowly avoided, this will remain a concern for property investors already facing the prospect of higher... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Homeworking to remain key to city retail performance One of the unforeseen consequences of the homeworking revolution is its negative impact on city centre retail footfall. The evidence suggests that in urban centres there is a link between higher... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian capital values to take a hit Italian prime property values continued to make solid gains in Q1. However, with the economic outlook downgraded and larger increases in property yields expected over the next couple of years, capital... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher rates to squeeze Copenhagen office values With economic concerns worsening in the euro-zone, we expect that the Danish economy will not be immune. And we think that the shifts in the interest rate outlook in particular will have the most... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office yields most vulnerable to rising interest rates While the low level of prime industrial yields compared to history leaves the sector vulnerable to rising interest rates, a fair value analysis that incorporates our expectations for rental growth... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update War impact reinforces investment slowdown While Q1 investment data showed further strength, the impact of the war in Ukraine on investor sentiment, economic growth and interest rates support our view that pan-European (excl. UK) investment... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone property yields to rise sooner A weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates this year and next mean that we now think euro-zone all-property yields will reach their trough by the end of this year and will come... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Completion delays prolong Budapest office market dip Past delays in development projects mean that office completions will exceed demand in Budapest this year and next. As such, having held broadly steady in 2021, office vacancy is set to rise again and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update There is still likely to be a reckoning for offices We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
