Europe Commercial Property Update Better transparency provides little respite for yields While encouraging for the property risk premium, better transparency across Europe is unlikely to provide much support for property yields given the deterioration in the economic and interest rate... 2nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowdown in European investment to continue After a strong start to the year, European investment weakened in Q2. And we expect only lacklustre activity over the second half of the year as rises in the cost of debt, tightening credit conditions... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker consumer outlook to delay Spanish retail rally A rebound in tourism will cushion some of the blow to Spanish prime retail demand caused by falling real incomes this year. But once inflation eventually eases, we expect rent growth to outperform... 25th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tightening credit conditions point to higher yields The Q2 ECB bank lending survey showed a tightening in credit standards for commercial property lending in the first half of the year, with expectations for a further squeeze in H2. With the cost of... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lisbon industrial yields near a turning point Despite the Q1 surge in investment activity, we think a weak rental outlook and stretched valuations will deter a sustained increase in investment, limiting the scope for further falls in prime... 18th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak euro unlikely to push overseas investment higher We doubt the fall in the euro will lead to a material increase in overseas investment this year. Rather, we think investor demand will be underpinned by the euro-zone’s economic and property... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak job prospects limit Warsaw office rental growth As recession fears grow in Europe, we think that weak employment growth, home-working and strong completions will weigh on office rents in Warsaw. This means rental prospects will provide little... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields could rise more quickly than expected Our updated yield model points to a quicker rise in property yields than our forecast suggests. While we still expect the correction to be mild, not least because of the lower share of property debt... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rent growth to slow, but quality gap could arise Both our view and that of the IPF Consensus is that prime office rental growth will slow as hybrid working shifts take their toll. However, we also think it is likely that a quality gap will emerge... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do recession risks threaten euro-zone rental growth? The risks of a recession in the euro-zone have risen. While we think a contraction will be narrowly avoided, this will remain a concern for property investors already facing the prospect of higher... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Homeworking to remain key to city retail performance One of the unforeseen consequences of the homeworking revolution is its negative impact on city centre retail footfall. The evidence suggests that in urban centres there is a link between higher... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian capital values to take a hit Italian prime property values continued to make solid gains in Q1. However, with the economic outlook downgraded and larger increases in property yields expected over the next couple of years, capital... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher rates to squeeze Copenhagen office values With economic concerns worsening in the euro-zone, we expect that the Danish economy will not be immune. And we think that the shifts in the interest rate outlook in particular will have the most... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office yields most vulnerable to rising interest rates While the low level of prime industrial yields compared to history leaves the sector vulnerable to rising interest rates, a fair value analysis that incorporates our expectations for rental growth... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read