Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE rate cuts coming into view, FX rally may not last Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe provided firmer signs this week that, with inflation now declining, monetary loosening may soon be on the cards. But there are still clearly big... 28th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB shifting to cuts, Turkey bracing for election result The Hungarian central bank (MNB) looks set to take its first steps towards lowering interest rates at its meeting next week by cutting the upper end of its interest rate corridor. Policymakers will... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s political crisis, another Bulgarian election Israel's political crisis that flared up earlier this week has since calmed down after PM Netanyahu paused the government's controversial judicial reforms. While tensions may flare up again and Israel... 31st March 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-China ties in full swing, Ukraine’s IMF deal Russia-China relations were on full show this week as China's President Xi visited Moscow and the two counties announced a raft of measures to increase ties over the coming years. China has helped... 24th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly SVB, Credit Suisse & the potential implications for EE Economies in Emerging Europe (EE) are particularly vulnerable to a sharp weakening of capital inflows if concerns about the health of the global banking system were to escalate. Investors revised down... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech koruna strength, gloomy GDP breakdowns The recent strength of the Czech koruna, which hit a 14-year high this week, adds to a number of disinflationary forces that are currently taking hold in the country. And despite hawkish noises from... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Recessions arrive in CEE, external deficits narrowing The big picture from the Q4 GDP data this week was that, despite some divergence within the region, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole had a relatively poor end to 2022. We expect CEE... 17th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s earthquake, Russia’s budget, CEE inflation While the human losses from the earthquakes that hit Turkey and Syria this week are first and foremost in everyone’s minds, we think the overall economic impact on Turkey’s economy will be more... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech-China tensions, Poland’s birth rate slumps The increase in tensions between the newly elected Czech president and Chinese authorities this week highlights the risk of a fracturing of economic ties between the two countries. For Czechia, China... 3rd February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly “Lira-isation” drive deepens, MNB’s hawkish stance Turkish policymakers deepened their "lira-isation" drive this week by increasing the incentive for firms to convert their FX earnings into lira, but we're not convinced that the policy changes will be... 27th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s shrinking surplus, Israel’s political risks The focus in the media this week on Russia’s record current account surplus in 2022 misses the huge deterioration in that surplus at the end of the year. We think the balance of payments will be... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
