Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Slovakia election, Q3 Outlook The Hungarian and Czech central banks maintained fairly hawkish communications at their meetings this week, but we still think that interest rates will fall sharply in both countries by mid-2024. That... 29th September 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland-Ukraine dispute, Romania's fiscal reforms Poland’s announcement this week that it would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine doesn't pose an immediate threat to Ukraine’s war effort, but cracks in support are clearly emerging across the region... 22nd September 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Dovish NBP skating on thin ice after bumper rate cut The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to kick off its easing cycle this week with a much larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate cut has been heavily criticised, and suggests to us that... 8th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Re-thinking Turkey’s policy shift, Prigozhin’s death The 750bp rate interest hike by Turkey's central bank this week was a major surprise and there are still reasons to be sceptical about the policy U-turn that's underway. At this point, however, we're... 25th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s macro pressures, external conditions tighten Macroeconomic stability risks started to crystallise in Russia this week as the ruble slumped and the central bank intervened with an emergency rate hike. Policymakers are considering further measures... 18th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next... 4th August 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Erkan in the spotlight, Israel’s pivotal week Turkey's new central bank governor presented a much more realistic set of inflation forecasts and delivered a convincing message at her first Inflation Report briefing this week. The priority is... 28th July 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal pressures, Turkey’s policy shift on thin ice A raft of comments from senior policymakers at the Russian Ministry of Finance this week highlight the pressures that the public finances are under. For now, policymakers are responding by tightening... 21st July 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey policy, Polish spending, Russia’s current account The raft of data for May out of Turkey this week underscored the precarious state of the economy prior to the shift back to orthodox economic policymaking. The central bank needs to use next week’s... 14th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble’s depreciation, Turkey’s adjustment in swing The depreciation of the Russian ruble gathered pace this week amid a continued squeeze on Russia's trade surplus and growing capital outflows. A weaker currency will support the fiscal position, but... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fallout from Russia's rebellion, lira's sharp depreciation The aborted uprising by Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russia's military last weekend has prompted a forceful response by President Putin as he seeks to reassert his authority. There's much less certainty... 30th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central bank meetings, Intel investments, Q3 Outlook The central bank meetings in Hungary, Czechia and Turkey that took place this week all produced different outcomes, and policymakers’ communications suggest that interest rates in these countries will... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read