Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s reshuffle & China ties, lithium-ion batteries The political reshuffle in Russia this week, in which Putin replaced the defence minister and gave more responsibility to a number of ministers in charge of the economy, suggests a greater focus on... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-China relations: a limitless partnership? Chinese President Xi’s visit to Hungary this week was the first by China’s head of state in 20 years and led to the establishment of an “all-weather partnership” between the two countries. There are... 10th May 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Which survey data are giving the best steer on activity? The two survey measures of activity released out of Central and Eastern Europe this week appeared to offer quite different insights into the performance of the region’s economies, but we’re more... 3rd May 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine gets a boost, but funding fatigue still a risk The $61bn US aid package for Ukraine approved this week will provide a much needed boost to Ukraine’s efforts on the battlefield, but the delays that the funding has faced over recent months casts a... 26th April 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel-Iran strikes, Poland utility prices, IMF forecasts Tensions between Israel and Iran ratcheted up this week, although there's at least hope that both sides are now trying to avoid any further escalation. For Israel’s economy, the pressing issue is the... 19th April 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Higher oil prices bolster Russia’s war economy The latest rise in oil prices presents challenges to the near-term outlook for most countries in Emerging Europe by weakening their terms of trade and pushing up inflation – which already looked set... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Public finances now a growing concern in parts of CEE The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region. The need for fiscal... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tusk’s first 100 days, CBRT’s pre-election surprise The new Polish government (which marks its 100 day milestone today) has successfully unblocked EU funds and delivered a wave of optimism that has helped Poland's financial markets outperform those in... 22nd March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly HUF struggles, Russia’s election coming into view The dispute between the Hungarian central bank and the government heated up further this week, which has fuelled a narrative that threats to central bank independence are responsible for the recent... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE wage growth still hot, new Russia sanctions The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of... 23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read